If there is a bailout of the Big Three, it should include alternative energy metrics against which the three companies compete for better loan repayment terms. The company that most rapidly converts its’ entire fleet to an average of 45 mpg, starts mass production of electric plug in and electric hybrid cars should have significantly better terms – including forgiveness of most of the loans – than the company that comes in second. There has been much discussion about whether America can afford to allow its’ auto industry to go down the tubes. This implies that the Big Three represent the totality of America’s automotive production.

We are now in the transition from the Information Age to the Shift Age. In recent columns I have positioned the recent financial melt down and global economic collapse as the beginning of a painful transitional restructuring between ages. Just as the 1970s with all its stagflation and unprecedented turmoil was the transitional period between the Industrial Age and the Information Age, so is this time a transitional period between the Information Age and the Shift Age.

Barack Obama is now the President Elect of the United States. For all the reasons that have been mentioned across all the TV channels and in all the newspapers around the world, that is an incredible statement.

I am thrilled by this historic and transformational event. It is nothing less than that. I have much to say about this event and will do so in subsequent columns. There are shifts in consciousness, politics and perception that have already happened in the U.S. and around the world.. There are many more that will take place due to Obama’s victory on November 4, 2008. I will write about them in subsequent columns.

The past few weeks have seen the unfolding of the financial crisis and meltdown of global equity markets. During this time I have been traveling across North America giving speeches about the future to groups of CEOs and business owners. In every instance, the primary concern of everyone has been what the short and long term ramifications of the financial crisis will be. As a futurist I am asked at each presentation what I see ahead for the U.S. and global economy.

The last column here placed the financial crisis within a historical context. The financial meltdown is part of the disruptive transition from the Information Age to the Shift Age. We are moving through a period of turmoil when the old order is being replaced by a new order. The nation state economic model is being replaced by a new global model. We are at a time when the old ways no longer seem to work and yet the new realignments are not yet clear.

In the United States there have been three great waves that have arced over our society during the last 30 years. The incredible run up in residential real estate values since the late 1970s was the first arc. Except for a short period in the early 1980s and then again in the 1990s, the value of residential real estate seemed to go ever upward. This of course created a great sense of wealth for those that benefited. In the early part of this decade millions of households took advantage of historically low interest rates to take out billions of dollars of equity to use for purchases. This 30 year cycle obviously came to a crashing halt two years ago.

People come to this web site for well written, interesting columns on science. To some degree it must be questioned as to whether economics is a science. That being said, the current financial crisis is worthy of some commentary here as it will affect all of us to some degree. As a futurist, I see this crisis as part of a bigger transition from one Age to another. The Information Age began in the 1970s and is now giving way to the Shift Age.

All year, in speeches given around the country, I have stated that the economic downturn we are going through must be looked at from a new perspective. The ‘is it a recession or not’ and ‘is it a bear stock market or not’ is a far too narrow focus for insightful discussion. There is something much larger that we are beginning to move through.

One of Salvador Dali’s greatest paintings is called “The Persistence of Memory”.  Last week the results of a new study were published in Science magazine that conclusively prove the physical nature of that persistence.  In what other scientists have called a ‘foundational study’ a team of researchers from America and Israel have discovered and documented the physical nature of memory.

 

In the study, the researchers threaded tiny electrodes into the brains of 13 people with severe epilepsy.  Evidently this implanting of electrodes is standard procedure as it allows doctors to pinpoint the brain activity that cause epileptic seizures.

 

It was two years ago that I first wrote about ocean dead zones. These are areas of the ocean that, due to a lack of oxygen, no longer sustain any life. While dead zones can happen naturally, they usually are caused by the results of human activity. A primary cause is nitrogen-rich nutrients from agricultural fertilizers that flow into coastal waters from rivers and streams.

 

Last week there was a report published in the Journal of Science that stated that the number of these ocean dead zones around the world has doubled every decade since the 1960s. There are now some 400 coastal areas that periodically or perpetually become dead due to oxygen starved bottom waters.

There have been many cultural changes so far in 2008. Some of these changes are in response to the rapid increase in the price of oil and other commodities. Some of these changes have been due to technological innovations. In both cases new behavior patterns are being established that will, to some degree become permanent and will create new dynamics in certain industries. Today we take a look at some of the predictions made here last January.

 

Shopping

The predicted shopping trends were written with a long term view. What is interesting is that the high price of gasoline has accelerated the speed of implementation of some of the forecasts. On shopping, this column forecast:

 

“Shopping behavior will noticeably change……purchases will go down per capita. This will due to belt tightening but also due to the effect of the explosive growth that on-line sales will now have on off-line sales.”

 

The economy has clearly become the primary subject today in America. It has become so not only because of all the issues discussed in the prior column, but also because it has also become the number one issue for voters in this significant election year.

 

In the “Forecast for 2008” column on January 9^th of this year I wrote: