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By Alan Gillis | August 12th 2008 08:22 PM | 87 comments

About Alan Gillis

I'm a journalist, photographer, and novelist in cottage country, Muskoka Canada. Science is such a big issue in our lives, I feel obliged to investigate big science megaprojects, that can have a... Full Bio

More from Alan Gillis

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On the vast CERN landscape outside Geneva, there’s only one figure in science tilting at the LHC windmill, Dr Otto E Rössler(Roessler). An aged veteran with some 300 research papers under his belt, sometimes called the father of Chaos theory, he looks the part of a sprightly campaigner for human rights, for knowledge and the imagination, poised now to do battle with the fiercest demons of all, the dreaded micro black holes from the Large Hadron Collider, should they appear. He worries they will consume the earth for breakfast.

CERN, the arch enchanter of nuclear physics, isn’t much concerned, with an underground lab to rival any fortress ever built, bolstered by an army of 2,500 physicists and another 6,000 worldwide just in case.


The ALICE Experiment, Time Projection Chamber, LHC, courtesy CERN 2007

If you do the math, there’s not much chance Rössler can delay the firing of the first round of protons, delayed over and over again by CERN itself, due to construction and technical problems for three years now, though again expected perhaps this September. This June CERN released its own review of LHC Safety concerns, the LSAG Report, that includes a discussion of micro black holes and other dangerous objects that might be produced. It denies the probability of any such theoretical problems, including mBH.

So far the scientific community and the public at large haven’t heard much about Rössler’s new theories. Those who have say he hasn’t the credentials in physics, though his accomplishments are many, and in several fields, including physics papers he’s published, and teaching Theoretical Physics. Starting out in 1966 with a degree in medicine, then a postdoc at the Max Planck Institute in Behavioral Physiology, he began his teaching career in Theoretical Biology at SUNY, Buffalo, in 1969, and then became professor of Theoretical Biochemistry at the University of Tübingen in 1970, where he still teaches today.
Professor Otto E Rössler lecturing, courtesy Bild/Jonathan Gröger 2008
In recognition of his accomplishments in chemistry, he was made a Professor of Chemistry by Decree.

As a visiting professor he’s taught at several universities in Canada, the U.S. and Denmark. What’s remarkable is each appointment was for a different discipline: Visiting Professor of Mathematics, of Nonlinear Studies, of Chemical Engineering, of Theoretical Physics, and of Complexity Research. Currently teaching Chaos Theory and Brain Theory at the University of Tübingen, he also collaborates with ATOMOSYD, a French research group studying Topological Analysis and Modeling of Dynamical Systems. So far he has published 5 books, among them, Encounter with Chaos, 1992, about his work on Chaos theory since the 1970s. Endophysics: The World as an Interface, 1998, is his introduction to a new field of physics he founded.

In physics you’ve got to be a physicist, especially a pre-eminent one, if you want to challenge CERN, which of course is loaded with them, including Nobel Laureates. It’s not just snobbery, but it’s more or less the club rules today. If they had been applied to Albert Einstein when he was drudging as a clerk at the Swiss Patent Office, he would have dwelt in obscurity. Actually as it happens, Einstein’s logic informs much of Rössler’s thinking on black holes.

Rather than let the matter drop, as other scientists do when they’re outgunned, Rössler continues to drum up support for a delay in LHC start-up, seriously alarmed at the prospect of runaway black holes being created that could destroy this planet. To that end he’s called for a Conference on LHC Safety, and has submitted his theories directly to CERN for evaluation. His latest foray is more political. In mid-August he is to meet the Swiss President, Pascal Couchepin.

Recently, I had the pleasure of talking with Dr Rössler. The interview follows.

Gillis: How did you arrive at the idea that mBH, if produced at the Large Hadron Collider, could accrete matter?

Early on, the idea that the LHC could be dangerous did not arrive in my brain. A Relativist friend of mine who was correcting this paper on my new interpretation of the Schwarzschild metric, asked me just as a joke if this wouldn't have repercussions on the LHC. I didn't know what the LHC was. It forced me to think whether this was a good question or a joke. Then it might mean that black holes or mini black holes cannot evaporate. The mathematics are the same. I tried to falsify (disprove) it, but I couldn't.

Another thing that occurred to me is that we can now predict the existence of non-point shaped black holes using El Naschie’s Fractal theory. Once we know they are string-shaped then we can ask what is their size. It occurred to me only a few days ago that we might use El Naschie’s theory to calculate their size.

Gillis: So you think that String theory is basically correct?

Yes. I never believed in String theory until quite recently, when I found this result.  That electrons cannot be essentially point-shaped.  For if they were, they would necessarily be little black holes at the same time, which indeed no one else finds objectionable.  But black holes are uncharged according to my new reading of the Schwarzschild metric.  Strings then must already exist in front of our eyes -- in the form of electrons.  This makes string-shaped mini black holes much more likely.

Gillis: Are you suggesting that you think electrons are actually elementary black holes?

No, it is everybody else who implicitly thinks so.  They could of course also be clouds of smaller charged particles, in principle, although I doubt it. This would only reiterate the problem.

Gillis: Then you agree that like all particles in String theory, electrons are string-shaped and not point-shaped in real space?

That is too hard a question for me to answer definitively.  In real space, there would only be a size increase, I guess.  But so perhaps, more or less the same one for all mini particles, from neutrinos to mini black holes? 

Gillis: There are still no experimental confirmations of String theory, not from collider data or any other experiments. CERN is hoping to find evidence of Strings at the much higher energies of the LHC.

Yes, it is one of the two big goals, besides the Higgs.

Gillis: There are a lot of String theorists at CERN. Given that String theory supports the formation of mBH at much lower energies than what you would need to produce a Planck mass size Black Hole, perhaps within reach of LHC collision energies, then why isn’t CERN taking this seriously? They did earlier, with their "Micro Black Hole Factory". Now the recent safety assessment by CERN, the LSAG report, discounts them, quoting Einstein’s Relativity, that they are an impossibility.

They’re less enthusiastic than they were before. The String theorists don’t believe in String theory anymore. That was my impression when I met Dr Landua at CERN, but maybe I misunderstood him. They don’t talk about black holes anymore since I started saying they are dangerous. They even abandoned String theory just to say they don’t believe in them anymore.

Gillis: What do you think the probabilities are of mBH being produced at the LHC with proton to proton collisions at 10 TeV, before winter this year?

I would almost say something like 10%. Maybe 16% or 16.6%. Russian Roulette has 6 probabilities.

Gillis: If they load the collider 6 times with protons? But seriously, at 14 TeV ordinary operating energies next year, and then much higher energy collisions planned for lead ions at 1,150 TeV, then the probability would be higher?

No, not in the second stage. Because quark-quark collision energies will still be low in that case.

Gillis: You wrote to Stephen Hawking recently on this subject, asking him to contact CERN, if he agreed there was room for doubt about black hole evaporation through Hawking radiation, and so some risk with mBH produced at the LHC. Did you get a response?

Not that I know of. I sent him the tape, actually on CD, of my long talk on this problem on January 31st in Berlin at the Transmediale, a big conference, an art conference. It was from the keynote address I gave. He asked his secretary to send a reply card which she did. I also asked several people to make contact with him. It’s a pity, really. I’m a big fan of his.

Gillis: You mentioned Dr Rolf Landua earlier. You had an interview with him at CERN this July 4th about your black hole theories. What happened?

It was an amiable meeting. When I arrived at the airport there were two ladies from Zurich expecting me. In order for me not to be alone. They were LHC activists. They accompanied me to CERN. When Landua came, he offered all three of us a ride to the ATLAS Detector. So there were four of us at the meeting later in the CERN cafeteria, with the view of Mount Blanc. He promised, since he couldn’t disprove my Relativity argument, that he knew several famous people in Relativity working at CERN that would talk to me. I was happy that there would be another discussion. Before we left, I reminded Landua of our next meeting with the Relativists. He didn't recall suggesting one, that it wasn't necessary. He said he would send my paper along to an expert. The matter is still pending. If I am wrong, I want at least to know where I am wrong.

Gillis: Did you have time to counter CERN's main safety arguments?

A little bit. We came to discussing neutron stars, the hardest conundrum. According to CERN, neutron stars should not exist if there were natural analogs to the LHC mini black holes. Neutron stars, consumed at first by mini black holes, would be black holes themselves. The CERN argument looks like a good one, but it is demonstrably wrong. I had brought this to CERN's attention in May. Mini black holes can exist. In the most susceptible stars to mini black holes, the neutron stars, they are so dense there is no hope at first sight that any fast particle can pass through without getting stuck. This is CERN's safety net argument. Or was.

Gillis: Then how do these super dense neutron stars survive attack by natural mBH? What is your theory?

Neutron stars are in a macroscopic quantum state called superfluidity. And this state protects them because it makes them transparent to fast particles.

Gillis: Because these stars are in a strange quantum state, like a Bose-Einstein Condensate?

Yes.

Gillis: Did Landua accept your argument?

I think so, after I had told him that my counter-argument had been accepted by a famous Nobel Laureate in the field: That neutron stars, which alone are susceptible to this CERN argument in the last instance, are protected due to their superfluidity, by being transparent to the stipulated fast mini black holes. And then, Dr. Landua realized that this stipulated new quantum effect was just the opposite to the famous Mossbauer rigidity -- which insight greatly impressed me. Then he and I suddenly saw that the predicted new transparency could actually be tested at CERN, in a separate experiment. For they have the largest amounts of a superfluid anywhere on the planet, in the form of their coolant, Helium II. Thus, fast mini particles -- I thought of neutrinos -- could for comparison, be shot through a long pipe of this superfluid and through an analogous pipe containing ordinary fluid helium. To see whether there is a difference in the cross section. But then, we both realized that this would probably take years to accomplish.

Gillis: Dr. Landua agrees with you, that this experiment is important? That it could show that superfluidity protects neutron stars from mBH?

On this point it seems. But unfortunately, superfluidity will not protect this planet from artificial sufficiently slow mini black holes, likely or possibly produced at the LHC.

Gillis: Did the subject of a possible bosenova implosion and explosion come up in your discussions? Superfluid Helium II is a quantum superfluid with strange properties, and generally considered to be a Bose-Einstein Condensate.

Yes, but the question of this superfluid being dangerous as such, because of the risk of bosenova formation at the LHC, I did learn only from you today: It did not occur to us. This is an important point, and should also be tested experimentally by CERN, I feel. They will of course be accidentally testing it when they switch on the LHC. This local catastrophe if occurring would inadvertently protect the planet at large.

Gillis: That a bosenova could destroy the LHC? You're not joking?

Not at all. My friend Artur Schmidt told me about the historical rule that whenever there is a technology jump by a factor of ten -- the LHC's energy will be by 8 times higher than ever before achieved, so it qualifies -- always major accidents happen owing to humanity's built-in lack of clairvoyance.

Gillis: Then you support my idea that a possible bosenova explosion could threaten the LHC and Geneva? And a safety test should be performed by CERN on both superfluid heliums? Recently I learned that Helium I is also used at the LHC, to cool both beam cryostats, in the main ring. I published an article recently on my findings, in ScientificBlogging, Superfluids, BECs and Bosenovas: The Ultimate Experiment.

Would I not have to say yes here? The problem is the BEC bosenova mechanism is still unknown. CERN should be reminded of this.

Gillis: Considering you are one of the leading critics in science of the safety of mBH, and CERN wasn’t prepared for the meeting you had to discuss your theories, will CERN invite you back?

This has not yet happened. Perhaps the answer is implicit in what a Nobel Laureate in physics, told me a few weeks ago. He told me I should go on with my fight against CERN. Because CERN needs the publicity.

Gillis: But why isn’t CERN taking you seriously? Are physicists there or elsewhere afraid of rocking the boat? With their reputations and jobs on the line?

No, I think there are other reasons as well. People nowadays no longer believe in originality of single people and small groups. Everybody believes in the big group and in the joint power. We have a Maoism in science. Let flowers grow. It’s no longer likely to happen. Everybody believes the ideology that it’s no longer possible to be a Poincaré or an Einstein. But we also live in the Age of everybody believing in the Big Bang, which is the greatest nonsense of all, if my co-workers are right. And yet it’s impossible to get rid of it. We live in a dogmatic age. People want to derive certainty from common opinions. They don’t believe it’s possible to find something really original. It’s a pity for our young people. They’re not allowed to believe in themselves anymore.

Gillis: I think you hit it on the nose. In a way, this is all about proving the Big Bang theory?

The younger physicists know it doesn’t exist. Many people knew it’s nonsense including Hubble himself. He was denied the Nobel Prize because of not believing in what everybody believed. Very strange.

Gillis: Hubble discovered the redshift as proportional to distance, which physicists think indicates the Universe is expanding, confirming the Big Bang theory.

He stopped believing in this. He said there is a non ad-hoc reason why light gets tired on its way through long distances. But no one found the reason for a long time. Until some 6 years ago when my group found the reason. I published it, but no one has any interest in it. The paper was published last year in Chaos, Solitons and Fractals. In August. It has a nice title actually. Hubble Expansion without Space Expansion. But you shouldn’t tell anyone I don’t believe in the Big Bang. Then they won’t believe anything I say, Professor Rössler laughs.

Gillis: But there is no other real alternative theory to the Big Bang?

There are many who know it must be nonsense, but no one has found the key. I had the good fortune to talk to a young American-Iranian physicist who worked in Switzerland. And he gave me the key paper by Chandrasekhar of 1943, which gives the mechanism, but no one saw it including the author himself. But he got a Nobel Prize later for Black Holes. It’s a very old theory, and I just found a more general simpler explanation of Chandrasekhar’s result. It applies not just to big stars, as he thought, moving faster than the rest. But any potentially gravitationally attracted fast body gets slowed down in a whirling cloud of heavier attracting bodies like galaxies, and light gets red-shifted in proportion. That’s a very simple law of physics, of classical physics essentially. But it was overlooked since 1865. This older paper was by the discoverer of Statistical Mechanics, Rudolf Clausius, who didn’t have a high school diploma. It was the ETH, the Swiss Polytechnic which saved him. You could pass an exam and be allowed to study there. The only (such) university in Europe and the world probably. It saved him and it saved Einstein 30 years later.

Gillis: On that score CERN would show Einstein the door today. Is that why you’re appealing to the public and politicians? In mid-August you’ll be seeing the President of Switzerland, Pascal Couchepin. What do you hope to achieve?

I’m trying to get a friendly contact with him, so he understands how I think. And that I’m not an enemy of CERN, which probably everybody believes. I’m the only friend of CERN I see around. Everybody else is trying to destroy it. Including themselves. They have this nice argument. We all have children. Would we do this experiment if we didn’t believe we were safe? But if they are ready to sacrifice their families, they are still not allowed to do it with the planet. CERN still hasn’t answered my questions, or refuted my papers, though they are publicly available on the Internet.

Here are Dr Rössler’s unanswered questions from his Seven Reasons for Demanding an LHC Safety Conference with minor revisions by Dr Rössler, original paper at http://wissensnavigator.ch/documents/spiritualottoeroessler.pdf which will be updated soon, as below.

This paper was recently presented by Dr Rössler to more than two hundred participants of the 20th International Conference on Systems Research, Informatics and Cybernetics, July 24-30, 2008, in Baden-Baden, hosted by the IIAS, the International Institute for Advanced Studies. The conference participants and the IIAS publicly endorsed Dr Rössler's call for an LHC Safety Conference as soon as possible.


Seven Reasons for Demanding an LHC Safety Conference 

1) Black holes cannot evaporate because their horizon is effectively infinitely far away in spacetime according to my new interpretation of the Schwarzschild metric [1].

2) Black holes are effectively uncharged [1]. Therefore, charged elementary particles cannot at the same time be black holes (or point-shaped). Hence non-point-shaped mini objects exist already. This makes mini black holes much more likely.

3) Mini black holes grow exponentially rather than linearly inside the earth: “mini-quasar principle” [2]. Hence the time needed by a resident mini black hole to eat the earth is maximally shortened – perhaps down to “50 months”. This contrasts with the “50 million Years” obtained assuming linear growth by BBC Horizon [3] and CERN’s analogous “5 billion years” [4].

4) CERN [4, 5] counters that if the hoped-for mini black holes are stable as claimed [1], equal stable particles must arise naturally by ultra-fast cosmic-ray protons colliding with planet bound protons. This is correct. However, there remains a fundamental difference: Only the man-made ones are “symmetrically generated” and hence dangerous. For they alone are slow enough with respect to the earth that one of them (at less than 11 km/sec) can take residence – in contrast to the almost luminal speeds of their natural cousins.

5) CERN‘s counter argument could still hold true for more compact celestial bodies than the earth – such that their lifetimes would be drastically reduced in defiance of observation if mini black holes exist. A quantitative bound can be derived from this argument: Take white dwarfs first. They are 10^5 times denser than earth while being the same size. Hence their cross-section for a mini black hole passing-through is by a factor of 10^5 greater than earth’s. They remain safe if no more than 10^4 eating-type collisions with a quark await a fast natural mini black hole entering them (so it can pass through).

Why? Because the planned energy of 14 TeV pumped into two colliding protons at CERN is 14,000 times the rest mass of a proton (1 MeV). Therefore a mini black hole born of two quarks (one from each proton) likewise has about 14,000 times the rest mass of a quark. Hence by momentum conservation, only about 14,000 collisions with a resident quark can be survived by a fast natural mini black hole of LHC energy, without losing its almost luminal speed. If this bound is to be heeded by nature in white dwarfs, then no more than about 0.1 collisions must await a CERN mini black hole on its first passage through the earth. This estimate appears plausible -- so that the continued existence of white dwarfs cannot be construed as a counter-argument against the dangerousness of man-made slow mini black holes.

6) This number presupposes that the nonlinear growth process in point (3) above, is inapplicable if very dense matter is passed through at almost luminal speeds. The shorter collision intervals, by many orders of magnitude, allow this prediction.

7) Finally, neutron stars have by another factor of 10^9, greater density than white dwarfs. Since they are a thousand times smaller, they are a million times more susceptible. But they are protected by quantum coherence effects of the superfluidity type: so mini black holes can pass without being braked. The superfluidity extends to the “inner crust” [6]. This prediction, if confirmed, renders natural mini black holes if they exist, non-dangerous. Hence, their man-made ultra-slow cousins on earth or spreading to the sun, can indeed have dreaded dangerous consequences that everybody prefers not to believe in.

In order to exclude the possibility that human-made mini black holes will endanger the earth, it will be necessary to disprove the first of these 7 points, or if this is not possible, the second, and so forth. Until this has been accomplished, no one can give the “green light” to the LHC crossing the 2 TeV barrier, as is currently planned within a few weeks.

It appears that only an immediate safety conference can save the LHC experiment from disaster.

References

[1] O.E. Rössler, “Abraham-like return to constant c in general relativity: Â-theorem derived in Schwarzschild metric”. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals (publication pending) Preprint available at www.wissensnavigator.com/documents/ottoroesslerminiblackhole.pdf (a revision of section 5 is forthcoming)

[2] O.E. Rössler, “Abraham-solution to Schwarzschild metric implies that CERN mini black holes pose a planetary risk” (submitted on September 27, 2007). Also found on the above URL.

[3] BBC Horizon documentary, “The Six Billion Dollar Experiment” www.BBC.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/broadband/tx/universe/

[4] M. Mangano, in an interview with Michael Liebe, at golem.de (in German) www.golem.de/0802157477.html

[5] R. Landua, in an interview with Andreas Séché, pm-magazin.de (in German) www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TjYobXKebM

[6] G. Colò, “A microscopic quantal calculation of the superfluidity of the inner crust of neutron stars” (Abstract) www.mi.infn.it/~colo/TRENTO/Abstracts/gori.txt


Comments

Hank's picture
I have made fun of the LHC delays plenty though I don't generally agree that the world is at risk.

That said, I can still enjoy a terrific piece of work whether I agree with the premise or not - and this is outstanding stuff taken at face value.

Plus sentences like this

CERN, the arch enchanter of nuclear physics, isn’t much concerned, with an underground lab to rival any fortress ever built, bolstered by an army of 2,500 physicists and another 6,000 worldwide just in case.

are just brilliant.

Please read the John titor story. He claimed to be a time traveler from a simliar world line as ours but there was a 2.5% divergence between the two. He came here in late 2000 and left in early 2001. He has made quite a few correct predictions and has also missed some. He said that CERN would be the ones who find some interesting new particles and science based off of the LHC that leads directly to time travel in about 30 years or roughly 2034. He said N10 seems to work the best as far as string theory. Do not have any concerns about the LHC destroying earth or anything like that at all. GE will be the one who creates the actual machine. Not only does he talk about our soon to be future which is not good but he also talks in decent detail about the physics and who the machine works via 2 micro singularities and an active method of timing the atom or something like that. Here is the link. His screen name was Timetravel_0 http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/30260/video
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread61544/pg1 Sorry the is the correct link for John Titor.
Outstanding interview Allan. My respect for Dr. Rossler is immeasurable. My theoretical work creating the open source project at bigcrash.org (pre-big bang theory) lead me to first suspect that micro black hole creation might not be safe. The theory tends to indicate that black holes grow from Reverse Hawking Radiation, making the obvious follow on prediction that creating slow moving micro black holes on Earth would not be safe. I have been studying LHC safety issues ever since and founded LHCFacts.org in response. I would be interested in what Dr. Rossler thinks of the bigcrash.org or mass.bigcrash.org projects? Thank you for your outstanding contributions to science and to the Large Hadron Collider safety issue Dr. Rossler. I will do everything in my power to assist your efforts and the efforts of nuclear physicist and US Federal Lawsuit co-planitiff Walter L. Wagner who in 2007 first discovered fundamental flaws in CERN's cosmic ray safety arguments. Safety should be a prime concern, not just a public relations exercise. Thank you also Allan. Great Column! Kudos.
I agree, a great column. As a nuclear safety and risk expert I hear the concerns. Because there are no prior data for comparison. Do the fault trees to your heart's content but you will not find the answer there. The risk is huge given the physics (and technology) push into an unknown territory. It comes down to a political decision as far as I am concerned. Much like the atomic bombs falling on Japan. I am listening.
I don't agree with Dr. Rossler. Although I don't know the details at a doctorate level, niether does Dr. Rossler. He cannot be a jack of all trades and a master of all trades as well. This is just about the fear of the unknown. I myself can think of a million reason why this experiment will be a disaster for Earth but not one is experimentally proven. And that's what I believe Dr. Rossler is doing. What you are saying is that this experiment, with the small amount of energies that are involved, is going to destroy the Earth. That's absurd. Remember that we are talking about a particle beam and although relatively speaking it's a lot of energy, it's not enough to create a black hole that will destroy the Earth. And Black Holes do indeed evaporate, partly due to the fact that the fabric of space-time tends to want to "right" or correct itself because of dark energy. The energies involved, with no doubt, will create dimples in space time, but the smaller the dent in space-time, the faster it will "pop" back out to it's normal configuration.
I have two quick questions. There is an article that reviews Prof Rossler's article but is never referred to in these sort of interviews. Prof Rossler says his proof has never been invalidated but never refers to this either. It is found here... http://environmental-impact.web.cern.ch/environmental-impact/Objects/LHCSafety/NicolaiComment-en.pdf In case the link didn't work.. it is here.. http://environmental-impact.web.cern.ch/environmental-impact/Objects/LHCSafety/NicolaiComment-en.pdf A few of it's points... "1) The argument of Mr. Roessler rests upon a coordinate-dependent reinterpretation of the concept of 'spatial distance' (which he calls the 'true' one), and that is used to support some arbitrary 'physical' arguments that are at odds with conclusions of general relativity. Formula (1) of his article appears in all text books and simply expresses the wellknown fact that an object, as measured in the coordinate time of a distant observer, needs an infinitely long time to reach the horizon (or rather, that no light beam can escape the horizon). The correct physical interpretation of the mathematical statements of general relativity (and only this is the point, since Mr. Rössler has only taken over well-known formulas) has been established for decades and has been confirmed in countless experiments. In particular, physical statements must not depend on the choice of a coordinate system - for example, if a black hole emits radiation or not is not a question of choosing a particular coordinate system. (2) Abraham's theory, to which Mr. Roessler refers in part, may be considered as disproved since 1915. At that time Abraham made the attempt (in confrontation with Einstein) to formulate a scalar theory of gravitation in the framework of special relativity. However this theory predicts a false precession of the [Mercury] perihelion (-1/6 of Einstein's result) and 'no' deflection of light, which clearly contradicts precise observations (the deflection of light has been measured to a precision of 10-4). (3) The arguments of Mr. Roessler are even self-contradictory: one the one hand, the black hole does not radiate because it is supposed to be at infinite distance in the re-interpreted spatial geometry, on the other hand he says that because of its infinite distance it cannot arise within a finite time, and thus can also not be produced in the laboratory." Second question. When Prof Rossler says that his argument on super fluidity was accepted by a Nobel Laureate, who is he talking about?
Dear Mr. Degraves: Thank you for highlighting the fact that CERN does not give links to rebuttals to rebuttals commissioned by itself - like the Nicolai report. That explains my answer to Mr Gillis that "the matter is pending" since I had long answered and am still waiting for a reply. To the short Nicolai report that you kindly referred to, I did respond in public on: www.achtphasen.net/index.php/plasmaether/2008/08/05. The same thing holds true for the second public comment by Giulini and Nicolai, to which I replied in German at the same URL (but ending on 06 rather than on 05). For your convenience I provide a a shortened English translation of bothz: #1) Professor Nicolai's expert opinion requested by CERN, came as a surprise to me since we had never met even though I had been promised this contact at CERN. The report does not recognizably refer to my second - relativistic - paper, the one with the Gothic-R theorem, but obviously only to the first - essentially chaos-theoretic one - on the same Url (www.wissensnavigator.com/documents/ottoroesslerminiblackhole.pdf). This reading of mine could explain how the false claim made by Professor Nicolai came into being: that I were contradicting both Einstein's theory of general relativity and experiment by my (allegedly) supporting an experimentally disproved paper by Abraham from the year 1915; which I in fact had never quoted nor alluded to nor even knew. My only referral to Abraham was Abraham 1912, in the second - relativistic - paper, for my new theorem, presented there, unexpectedly confirmed a wishful thought of Abraham's expressed toward Einstein in a published question in 1912. #2) Report by Giulini nad Nicolai: Dear colleagues, you are writing me public letters of rebuttal without granting me prior access to them. Now, you also declined my kind request to be allowed to talk to you for the first time before my responding in public. My answer can be brief: First, I appreciate the evolution that visibly took place between your, Professor Nicolai, first public criticism of my work and this second response. In the first, you still asserted that my findings were at variance with both experiment and General Relativity - being disproved as such since 1915. These two verdicts are now gone. The theorem remains unscathed and nature is no longer invoked as your ally. Nothing but “interpretation” is still at stake. But a theorem by definition is more than an interpretation since it invites disproof, not polemics in its stead, and/or empirical falsification or - sometimes more dangerous - verification. Let me nevertheless add that I am disappointed with this "progress" shown between the two reports. For like the public at large, I had genuinely hoped for a falsifying statement on your part. Let me add that if an authority in the field of General Relativity had been able to disprove my Gothic-R Theorem, this would have dispelled its unsettling implications which, unfortunately, are of more than mere academic interest. People across the planet have thus been gravely disappointed by your report. At this point I should mentioned that I wrote a third rebuttal - to a public statement made by KET, an organization of 20 eminent German institutions in loose connection with CERN. This response written in German was titled "Attempt at a clarifying statement - subito, al monodo!", see: www.achtphasen.net/index.php/plasmaether/2008/08/11. Let me briefly summarize: #3) Firstly, Nicolai's abandoned false statements are repeated. Secondly, the prestigious 20 institutions are misleading the public when they say that "under no circumstances" would any "danger to our existence" emerge from black holes produced at CERN, and that "cosmological observations do imply this,too," whilst I, their target, am accused of keeping silent toward this important issue. It is important, but I'm not the one who keeps silent: I had found out to my reluctance, and immediately mailed to CERN in May (as acknowledged by Professor Landua on the 4th of July), that these arguments which draw sweet consolation from cosmic-ray collisions of the same or greater energy than the artificial ones at CERN, are unfortunately invalid. (Compare the end of the above interview.) At the end, I could not resist reminding the reader of Einstein's remark to Linus Pauling that he had made "a single mistake in life." The context makes it clear: the mistaike of not having put his full energy behind his active attempt to prevent the trigger from being pulled on a certain technical reactor in mid-air. Sometimes, every effort is needed in life, the old man wanted to say. Allow me to add today that very recently, a young anonymous scientist-blogger ("ICH") found the full 3-D version to the radial gothic-R solution to the Schwarzschild metric. In its wake, a so far overlooked hidden assumption present in the famous traditional "finite-proper-infalling-time theorem" could be pinpointed tentatively. If the lead bears out, the Oppenheimer-Dynder theorem ceases to be physical without losing its mathematical correctness (if the new-found physical conditions are specially provided). All diverging opinions will then be reconciled. Can I rattle on a little longer? The lack of a rebuttal of my results stands in stark contrast to public statements currently being made made almost every day by leading CERN representatives. Unfortunately, it goes without saying that this state of affairs accompanies an already started LHC experiment. Hence an incalculablle danger - for the first time to every single atom of the planet - is optimistically embraced. I wish I may, I wish I might. But that you don't read me wrong: I never really believed into that danger myself. I just tried hard to validate every single defense argument that I could come across: that it is no joke perhaps in the eyes of nature. For the whole suspicion had not been my own idea, it had been posed to me as a joke - or was it a riddle? A much more competent colleague whom I had consulted on my relativity paper had made the jokeful remark that my academic theorem in general relativity - with its sensitivity to historical undercurrents - could have repercussions on a certain three-letter acronym that I had never heard - LHC? - and laughed heartily. Was he serious? I only wanted to make sure that the joke had been one. Perhaps someone else will find the resolution of this conundrum? It would be too nice indeed if I could return to my l'art-pour-l'art activities soon. That is: before the tenth of Septemmber when collisions start in earnest. I am obliged to you, Mr. Degraves, for your having insisted on my answering your public question. Sorry that I am not very adroit at this meedium which I beg you to take as an excuse why it took me so long. Since CERN has such a difficult time defusing the very same joke, and so has the Albert-Einstein-Institute, and so has the Committee of Elementary Particles - evidently we all are pulling on the same string! - maybe the idea to convene a conference where people can at last talk across institutional barriers and the slowness of friendly CERN-borne media is, perhaps, not a bad idea after all? Or else a reader of this blog is even faster than the 18 days that still remain to us for the conference, finding the missing cue that explodes the whole joke so we all can laugh again from the depth of our hearts? As to your final question regarding the friendly nobelist: He did not reply as yet to my letter with the "A rational and moral and spiritual dilemma" paper in it, in which I had quoted him anonymously twice as you know. So I cannot tell whether I have his nod to reveal his identity at this point in time. (He is a great laugher.) Is this okay with you, Mr. Degraves? A privileged postscript: I wasn't pressured by Mr Gillis when he allowed me to read his "Superfluids, BECs and Bosenovas" article before the interview started. Sincerely yours, Otto. E. Rossler For J.O.R.
So far the scientific community and the public at large haven’t heard much about Rössler’s new theories. Those who have say he hasn’t the credentials in physics, though his accomplishments are many, and in several fields, including physics papers he’s published, and teaching Theoretical Physics.
This person has a degree in medicine. Having visiting teaching positions in Theoretical Physics (likely related to the Theoretical Biology/Chaos fields he is established in) does not make one an expert in Theoretical or any other type of physics. As an engineering student, even I can see the logical fallacies in this man's statements - I've taken a course in modern physics, and he is using technical "physics" words without seeming to understand what they really mean. While I don't disagree that projects such as this need to have safety investigations, they are performed by experts in the field, not interested novices whose "theories" fail cursory review (see the review of his paper by an actual physicist, as given above http://environmental-impact.web.cern.ch/environmental-impact/Objects/LHCSafety/NicolaiComment-en.pdf).
If you want to call him a novice what do you call me something who crawled out of the slums or grammar school or something. RichardKanePA, Of course I, RichardKanePA-2, don't know how dangerous it is. But the info to soothe the masses is that mini Black Holes occur very occasionally when cosmic rays pass thru a planetary body, and comes in contact with a piece of a molecule but a cosmic ray bouncing like two billiard balls colliding will at nearly the speed of light be out of the earths atmosphere and crust in a fraction of a second to collect mini amounts of matter out in deep space. So researchers are humoring the public into relaxing, whether or not there is any real danger. Besides at first Einstein was about pure math, bombs were a so called practical result, us monkeys have powerful enough forces already although perhaps someday mini black holes may be garbage cans to put in nuclear waste etc. I want to march on the UN to get involved. See, www .capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/11416#comment-41936 .capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/11416#comment-41732 .capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/11416#comment-41936
While we all realize Professor Rossler might not readily qualify to present the physics sections of the LHC EIS, he qualifies imminently to express his opinions about the experiments as a learned member of the public. I, for one, am grateful that he does what he does. All the power to him. Going back to his credentials, if they are inadequate for him to really know what he is concerned about, then it should be a piece of cake for the 'credible' people to resolve his concerns. In the absence of that, the controversy brews because the truth is we have unspecified uncertainties about potential failures and their consequences. (This is my second response. #3 was mine.)
Hank's picture
No one can satisfy theoretical concerns. If someone is convinced they are going to be in a car accident, talking statistically or scientifically about it will do no good.

So it is with some opponents of the LHC; their concerns are about unknown science. In the early days of railroads they tested with dogs because they were not certain people could survive going 30 MPH - at some point they needed people to go for it. Likewise, the LHC has been tested as well as anything can be tested but the same people who are crippled by fear of getting on planes are never going to have relief about the LHC unless something goes wrong - so they get to be right.

It's not so much about the qualifications of Prof Rossler but about the math in this situation. For one thing... these rebuttals of Prof Rossler's work have never been addressed, either by himself nor by those who believe his work to be correct. http://environmental-impact.web.cern.ch/environmental-impact/Objects/LHCSafety/NicolaiComment-en.pdf http://environmental-impact.web.cern.ch/environmental-impact/Objects/LHCSafety/NicolaiFurtherComment-en.pdf In addition, there are very odd aspects to this interview and to the meeting that Prof Rossler attended. For one thing, it would have been preferable for Prof Rossler to have been interviewed by a real journalist, ie someone who does not have a specific agenda, as is shown by this leading question...
Gillis: Then you support my idea that a possible bosenova explosion could threaten the LHC and Geneva?
This shows fairly strong bias towards a specific response, one that Prof Rossler had little time to evaluate before being asked to agree with it. For another thing, from the interview, it seems like the Prof was not shown much nor is there much in the way of the details of the conversation. A more complete article would have included the views of Dr Landua as well. Maybe that can be the next interview.
Dr. Rossler addresses criticisms of his paper at achtphasen.net Prof. Otto E. Rössler an Gerhard W. Bruhn "the diverging conclusion... is therefore not disconfirmed. On the contrary. Which of the two interpretations of the same finding is correct remains open."
Those at CERN can't even figure out what the Uniform Field is even though it's right in front of their faces at every single moment, and yet they feel perfectly qualified that what they're doing is "perfectly safe". If they can't even figure out the very simplest thing in all physics, why should I trust anything they say? The Uniform Field is pre-school, pre-kindergarten stuff. Why are they having such trouble with something so simple? If you know what the Uniform Field is, a ridiculously expensive and dangerous boondoggle like the LHC is completely irrelevant and absolutely worthless. It's just an over-priced pile of junk built by those who have a vested interest in construction payments and others who think they have a vested career interest in something that's really nothing more than a giant kevorkianesque suicide machine. Using nothing more than pen and paper, I unlocked the secrets of the universe. Why? Because I actually dared to use my mind to think with. Using a totally low-tech method, I succeeded. Although, I did try using a chalkboard and chalk, but chalk dust got all over everything and I prefer the pen and paper method because I have hard copies of my work which I can and do constantly refer to and correct when needed. And what's the Uniform Field from which every single everything derives? You're looking right at it right this very moment. Do you see it? Do you recognize it? Hint: What color is a photon? The photon itself, not the effect it has on your retina. Further hint: it's the exact same color as an electron. And proton. And of course neutron. As well as neutrino. And the actual color of everything else. If you know the correct answer, welcome to kindergarten! As Judge Dredd would say, "I knew you could do it!"
The paper at this reference... http://www.achtphasen.net/index.php/plasmaether/2008/08/08/gerhard_w_bruhn_darmstadt_university_of__2008 is a refutation of Prof Rossler's theory by Prof Gerhard W. Bruhn who is a relatively well known mathematician. Prof Rossler's rebuttal of Prof Bruhn's paper is one paragraph with no math and little substance.
This is a nice little paper. Everything it says is also said in the quoted paper, reference (2), which is represented in but a few (non-literal) excerpts. Only the diverging conclusion, presented at the very end, is new. It is obtained as follows: Since the paper of reference (2) has arrived at a result which, as it stresses, is at variance with accepted calculations based, not on the Schwarzschild metric itself but rather on transforms of the latter (as is detailed in the present paper with the aid of the Eddington-Finkelstein transform), it is bound to be “void.” The conclusion of reference (2) that the fault lies with the use of transforms - compare the Jacob’s-ladder argument in ordinary space presented there - is therefore not disconfirmed. On the contrary. Which of the two interpretations of the same finding is correct remains open. Nonetheless, the odds for a consensus have been greatly improved by an author who chose to enter the Olympic court on this side of the ocean, on 080808.
I don't know who he is referring to with that last sentence but this can hardly be considered a proper response to Prof Bruhn's article. Prof Rossler simply claims that both interpretations could be correct without any proof. He also ignores the claim that the math in the rebuttal and it's interpretation is also backed by experimental results as is pointed out in the other refutations I have linked. I note also that Prof Rossler has never addressed these other refutations. I am not sure he knows they exist however, even though they are linked at the CERN website. Also... I take it there is no sign of the Nobel laureate that was mentioned in the article? I am curious as to whom he meant.
Dr. Ellis Defends Safety Arguments I recently viewed Dr. Ellis's 73 minute presentation of safety arguments to CERN scientists. The LHC is Safe. The talk was intended to give ammunition to CERN scientists to use to defend safety arguments. The mood of the CERN scientists in the audience in notably serious and somber. Dr. Ellis's criticisms of minority views were blunt as is my response to what I consider to be more about public relations propaganda and less about objective science. Dr. Jonathan Ellis tells only half of the story unfortunately. All of Dr. Ellis's arguments are disputed, done best in papers by Professor Dr. Otto E. Rössler[2] and Dr. Rainer Plaga[3]. By far the worst argument is for Hawking Radiation, clearly fundamentally flawed conjecture. Did you see Dr. Ellis's slide with the outlandish reference to reverse time travel? I did not see a reference to negative energy though. LOL (Laugh Out Loud, anti-matter falling into black holes adds energy to the black hole, no matter how clever the counter arguments are to try to correct Dr. Hawking's more than 30 year old blunder). See the following for references to a few compelling papers that argue Hawking Radiation is flawed conjecture, black holes are neutral* and do not radiate: [4][5][6]*). Dr. Michael E. Peskin argues that the micro black hole danger scenarios are plausible except that they are excluded by cosmic ray arguments[1], but he does not address compelling counter arguments by Dr. Plaga[2] and Dr. Rossler[3], summarized well by Dr. Plaga "Concluding, G & M have not demonstrated that white dwarfs stop cosmic-ray produced mBHs in general. Their exclusion of dangerous mBHs thus remains not definite." (For the record I do not find plausible the arguments that safety is sufficiently proven for micro black holes created at Large Hadron Collider energies, but the safety of micro black holes created by future higher energy colliders still requires confirmation. I was unable to reconcile this line of reasoning other than it may have been creative wording to disguise and minimize minority opposition concerns in the SPC report.) The most disturbing statement of all was the stunningly arrogant prediction that safety will be proven when the Large Hadron Collider begins high energy collisions in a few weeks. I suspect General Custer said something similar to re-assure his troops that he would defeat the American Indian's at the Little Big Horn. General Custer was arrogant and ignorant, but his mistake had relatively limited consequences. Dr. Ellis comments that Hawking Radiation is "just elementary quantum mechanics" and argues only that an extremely implausible CP violation result could allow failure. Learn about Bohmian (Einstein deterministic) Quantum theory[7] Dr. Ellis then decide which passes the Occam's Razor test by an order of magnitude and decide how sure you are about "elementary quantum mechanics" before you arrogantly potentially risk the future of humanity and belittle the genius of Dr. Rössler and others in your rush to prove yourself correct. Reverse Hawking Radiation is a theory you should familiarize your self with, it is predicted by at least one speculative theory that I find compelling[8]. An open and independent safety conference as Dr. Rössler calls for is desperately needed before micro black hole creation energy thresholds might be exceeded. The response to petition Swiss President Pascal Couchepin not to meet with Dr. Rössler appears to follow the pattern that Dr. Rossler alleges in his blog[9] "I consider it very plausible that the [disinformation] policy of CERN’s has shielded the author from his field of research for the last 18 months" Heed the appeal for reasonable confirmation of safety arguments by an open and independent credible decision making process before collisions begin. Sincerely, JTankers Founder and co-administrator of LHCFacts.org *Dr. Otto E. Rössler's brilliant yet obvious re-interpretation[6] of General Relativity theory concludes that mass in black holes is infinitely far in space time from the event horizon and black holes never reach infinite density because time approaches a stop as infinite density is approached. Dr. Rossler calculates that Earth will be destroyed in 50 months to 50 years if micro black holes are created (micro black holes become charged by capturing charged particles outside the event horizon). Dr. Ellis arrogantly and ignorantly belittles "Mr. Rössler". Inappropriate and misguided. [0] http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1120625/ ''The LHC is Safe'', Jonathan Ellis, August 14, 2008. [1] http://physics.aps.org/articles/v1/14 ''The end of the world at the Large Hadron Collider?'' - Michael E. Peskin Paper, 8/18/2008 [2] http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0808/0808.1415v1.pdf ''On the potential catastrophic risk from metastable quantum-black holes produced at particle colliders'' - Rainer Plaga Rebuttal, 8/10/2008 [3] http://www.wissensnavigator.com/documents/spiritualottoeroessler.pdf ''A Rational and Moral and Spiritual Dilemma'' - Otto E. Rōssler Safety Counter Arguments [4] http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0304042v1 Do black holes radiate? '' Do black holes radiate?'' - Adam D. Helfer Paper. [5] http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0607137 On the existence of black hole evaporation yet again ''On the existence of black hole evaporation yet again'' - VA Belinski Paper. [6] http://www.wissensnavigator.com/documents/OTTOROESSLERMINIBLACKHOLE.pdf ''Abraham-Solution to Schwarzschild Metric Implies That CERN Miniblack Holes Pose a Planetary Risk'' - Otto E. Rōssler Theory a [7] http://space.newscientist.com/article/mg19726485.700 Quantum randomness may not be random, New Scientist Magazine, March 22, 2008 [8] http://www.bigcrash.org "The Pre-Big Bang Universe Model", open source speculative physics project [9] http://www.achtphasen.net/index.php/plasmaether/2008/08/21/on_the_splendid_article_by_michael_e_pes "On the Splendid Article by Michael E. Peskin" by Otto E. Rossler, August 21, 2008
To Dr. Rossler. Thank you very much for answering my questions. I missed the fact that you had and I am quite frankly mortified. If you don't mind, I would like to continue this conversation, even in such an indirect fashion. If you wish to be more direct I will provide my email address here, though sadly my german is poor...or we can continue here. First of all, I would like to assure you that I consider you a most worthy academic, even though I may not agree with your position in this case. This done, I have the following questions. 1. I note that, though there are several papers that CERN has published about your new interpretation of relativity that contradict it, I have not seen any work from any physicists that support it. Perhaps I have missed something. Of course, this does not invalidate it per se but it would be far more daunting if independent confirmations of your interpretation were arrived at. 2. You say
In the first, you still asserted that my findings were at variance with both experiment and General Relativity - being disproved as such since 1915. These two verdicts are now gone.
In what way are these verdicts gone? Here is the crux of my problem with this... your theory has been attacked as being an incorrect derivation of relativity at odds with experimentation and almost a hundred years of mathematical work. Can you point out where, specifically, this is false? Are there experimental values that support your interpretation? 3. In the case of the Bosonova part of the interview, I simply meant that you agreed with his interpretation without what I would consider to be the proper time to examine the situation in a considered light, unless you were already quite familiar with the science of Bose-Einstein condensates, etc. 4. You mention superfluidity in your interview. However, from what I have been able to read, it appears that a neutron star is not so simple a creature, ie it is not a superfluid throughout. It would have a crust, quite compact but not superfluidic and this would be quite a lot for micro black holes to simply pass through. Of course, this assumes that a super fluid would allow a micro black hole such unrestrained passage. Are there any studies on this subject? 5. Your interpretation is a derivation of relativity. However, would a micro black hole not be mostly ruled by quantum mechanics, considering it's microscopic size? As far as I know, relativity has never been successfully used to described the sub-atomic world. I would like to make a last point if I may. It seems that we both have a similar emotion towards the LHC. I believe in science and want to see it move forward but not at the cost of the whole planet and all that live on it. However, I also believe that proper scientific dialog is the only way to resolve issues that stand in the way of understanding such dangers, if dangers there are. The problem, from my point of view, is that there is far too many people who have alarmist agendas and who's understanding of the science is limited. This tends to make the CERN scientists paint all who are concerned with the same brush. The recent paper by Dr. Rainer Plaga is quite interesting but again, it has many flaws. I think it would be interesting and maybe convincing if you could get some experts in the field to confirm or infirm your theory but I fear that few will want to do so for fear of being seen in the same light as some of your supporters. As an aside, I do not know if you are aware of the pain this causes to many people who do not understand the science but only know that they may die soon because they read it on the internet. Your name is oft quoted to further an agenda of fear and I consider that most unfortunate. Whereas I do not like to imagine a catastrophic result like a black hole or strangelet devouring the earth, I will not succumb to the primitive fear of the unknown, no matter how tempting it might be. If there is a logical reason to stop or slow down the LHC experiment, I say "let's hear it and let's have it evaluated properly by those who are experts in the field." If not.. let us put an end to the fear.
Rössler has been a scientist for decades, yet only just started working on general relativity (let alone elementary particle physics or string theory) - now he claims to have some revolutionary new results that contradict what almost everyone in those fields has been saying for decades. We could say with certainty almost from the beginning: These are just beginner's mistakes, amplified by someone who places a great faith in his own abilities. Anyone who tries to change fields, let alone to subjects as subtle as quantum physics or GR, must start learning from scratch and make sure they understand the existing literature, otherwise they will make these sort of errors again and again. Just for one example: The question of whether black holes may be charged. Rössler tries to argue that they cannot be, because of some properties of the Schwarzschild metric. However, that metric is only appropriate for uncharged black holes anyway. In order to deal with charged BH you need a different solution, namely the Reissner-Nordstrom metric. This does not seem to have penetrated through to Rössler yet...
Alan Gillis's picture
This is a nice psycholgical statement by a professional physicist. It is about probabilities, and I have no occasion to object. There is no mistake anywhere. Only some to the author unknown facts are necessarily absent. Like the duration of work in the area - some 16 years. But there are indeed not many papers in the field (only about ten). One even contains a mistake - actually two - which, I admit, I did not draw special attention to when correcting them in later papers. This technique I learned from Maxwell but I admit is not optimal: I deserve being castigated for that. Also, it is correct that Professor Nicolai contradicted my theorem in public in his first statement (violation of general relativity; violation of experimental facts) but ceased to do so in his second public statement (written jointly with Professor Giulini and no longer in English). Why he refuses to acknowledge this retreat I cannot ask him since he refused communication from the beginning and still does. The fact that he still objects to my "interpretation" I will have to live with since I did the same thing to previously accepted interpretations in my paper. So we do agree on a metalevel. The point here is that theorems have a different weight than interpretations. The former are susceptible to disproof. So if my theorem is no longer being assailed by someone who did so before, he acknowledges defeat. Maybe all theorems from newcomers should be banished? Mine implies that all black holes are uncharged (so that only the Schwarzschild metric remains for their proper treatment, in the assumed absence of angular momentum. Why should such a result not be presented to the world? Like any scientist, I look forward to being falsified. Especially so in the present situation in which the world at large does not have the means to judge my theorem and its implications. Opinions are not the franchise the world expects for once. Like the public statement that what Professor Rossler says "is absolute nonsense." Both Director General Aymar and Professor Ellis from CERN who made this statement will have a difficult job explaining it to the public. The whole world waits for the evidence. This sounds as if I were sure. The contrary is true. I only want to be given the benefit of the doubt. Doubt says: I don't believe you but I try to find out. This currency was denied, not to me but to every citizen of the world, by CERN.
I liked your very perceptive response. Sometimes one has to take recourse to probabilities. As you did and as I do when I say that the unprecedented danger unfortunately still has a finite (not even small?) probability. So you contributed by your doubts to the fact that the world will now ask for a short-term evaluation of the danger I (and others) described before the experiment starts on September the tenth.
We both give the other the chance to respond because we both remain in the question mode - right? Thank you for this rare gift. Sincerely yours, Otto E. Rossler

Hank's picture
I liked your very perceptive response. Sometimes one has to take recourse to probabilities. As you did and as I do when I say that the unprecedented danger unfortunately still has a finite (not even small?) probability. So you contributed by your doubts to the fact that the world will now ask for a short-term evaluation of the danger I (and others) described before the experiment starts on September the tenth.
We both give the other the chance to respond because we both remain in the question mode - right? Thank you for this rare gift. Sincerely yours, Otto E. Rossler

Who is actually writing this stuff? It says Alan Gillis but then is signed Otto Rossler.

Alan Gillis's picture

It's a ScientificBlogging software glitch. Dr Rössler wrote it and sent it in. When it was published, an extra line of gibberish appeared below his signature, and he asked me to delete it. I did that and then my name replaced his as the sender.

 


Physics is in flux right now. Many theories are proposed. It is well known that quantum theory and relativity do not agree. Given this flux, it seems impossible to prove to a very high certainty the safety of a foray into territory exhibiting unknown physics, the very purpose of the LHC. A demonstration of the difficulty of proving safety is the speed with which three collider safety studies became outmoded by new physics. The 1999 RHIC study said that black hole creation by colliders was impossible. Within months, some string theorists were predicting black hole production. The 2003 CERN study said that black holes would dissipate via Hawking radiation. At the same time, and even earlier, studies appeared questioning Hawking radiation. The 2008 LSAG study is already questioned. I am not saying that any of these questions are definitive. I think that there is a fairly good probability that colliders are safe. However, standard decision theory would address this with an expected value calculation, i.e. probability times the cost if the probability is actualized. When the cost is destruction of earth, any reasonable probability results in an enormous negative expected value. Humanity should not address this with safety studies made up of advocates for one side.
James... Your decision theory is absolutely silly when it's applied the way you apply it. Let me give you an example... one that I more or less copied from Scott Adams (this way he can't sue me for taking the credit for the idea :) ). Let's say I ask you for a thousand dollars now... but I will repay you a billion trillion dollars in the afterlife. Now.. the odds of me being able to repay you that much in the afterlife seems rather small... but on an expected value calculation a high reward compensates for a low probability...so it's not so bad a deal is it? So... how about it. I could use the cash now. Fact is.. there is no acceptable level of risk when the chips are down... but your type of analysis would lead to a complete stop to all scientific exploration... as there is no project out there that you can demonstrate an absolute zero level of risk, even to the entire earth. I could go on at length about the risks in any biological experiments, physics, robotics, etc. You don't understand the physics involved and you insist on applying methods of analysis that are not appropriate to the subject at hand. Hardly a fair estimate.
RobDegraves, your example is precisely Pascal's wager. Do you disparage the religious people who think that way? (Most religious people have better reasons for their faith.) Your example is a straw man. In the context of decision theory, a gamble of the kind you propose does not make sense because of the declining marginal utility of money. If you don't get that, then "you don't understand the economics involved." Look it up. My argument is essentially that of Adrian Kent, in his paper "A critical look at risk assessments for global catastrophes," (Risk Analysis, Vol. 24, No. 1, 2004) I agree that the value of science needs to be put in the balance. I told Adrian Kent that, and I am one of the many people he thanks in the article because of that comment. However, science is not so valuable that it justifies taking anything but a very small chance of destroying earth. That limit might shut some science down, and properly so. But it would allow most to continue. Unfortunately, it is a limit that is not currently implemented, despite much talk of the precautionary principle. If it were implemented, scientists would not see it as a threat that would take away something that they have now. What they have now is the right to bet the world on the truth of their theories, often quite speculative theories.
I am familiar with Pascal's wager. However, Pascal's wager, and in fact all risk analysis falter in one specific area. They are dependent on an understanding and knowledge of the subject matter to base the wager on. In the case of Pascal's wager, the infinite rewards of worshiping God are contrasted with the finite rewards of earthly life. In that case, infinite over finite is 1/0 and is an obvious winner. However, there are a number of problems with this. 1. Which God (s) exist? In addition to the thousands of faiths in history.. there could be an infinite more that may exist in the future. Which one is correct is impossible to determine and choosing the wrong one may well make any afterlife more difficult. 2. It does not deal with the central issue... is any of this true? Pascal's wager is just that, a wager. It does not attempt to determine the truth of the matter. In this case, the second objection is closer to the situation at hand. Science evaluated by statisticians does not make for very good science. So far, the arguments for the LHC producing a catastrophe have been remarkably lacking in actual qualified authorship. Prof Rossler is likely the most erudite of the lot and he is not a physicist. Other than Dr Plaga, the others are largely taken out of context and have no real objections to the LHC or are not practicing physicists at all. Dr. Plaga remains the only actual physicist with an objection to the LHC and his work has yet to be evaluated. So.. how do put an estimate on the probability of the world being destroyed in this case, where an overwhelming majority of physicists say the possibility is essentially nul, and one physicist says that it may not be completely nul? Also...
However, science is not so valuable that it justifies taking anything but a very small chance of destroying earth.
This we agree on. The problem is evaluating if there is even that small chance. I would say that so far, there is little evidence to show even a small chance... but that jury is still out for now. As an aside, using the term strawman and claiming that my lack of understanding of decision theory invalidates my argument is a rather poor way to continue a debate and only solidifies people into their original stance. If you have a point I am more than happy to respond to it directly.... as I have.
Hi, I know I'm just a student and everything but I read your article, sir, and I was wondering why the public doesn't even know about this, I'm not talking about the scientists, I mean the genearal public no one I know know's of this. If you would like to gain a serious advantage, consult the public through the media and start with the United Kingdom, create polls, let the public have their say in this, if paople knew about this it would cause international outrage that it was kept so quite what happened to freedom of expression and the right to live, which I'm sure we have. People have a right to know when a bunch of mad scientists are toying with their lives.
Alan Gillis's picture

It's a good point.  If you read the major media stories on the LHC, you'll note nearly all of them are rewrites of CERN Press Releases.  It's hardly a conspiracy.  Most journalists have writing backgrounds.  They aren't scientists.  They don't know what questions to ask and don't know how to evaluate the answers they get.  They don't have time either.  They rush from one story to another under deadlines.

What CERN tells them is gospel.  They report it, believing they're getting the full story.  Science jounalists have a more general understanding, unless they're physicists and engineers. There aren't many. Most are rather in awe of mighty science labs like CERN, like to be part of the club, so often are uncritical like other journalists.

It's really old fashioned investigative journalism that's required.  You need nerve and long nights of hard work.  


Quick question in relation to your comment ... Are you a scientist Mr Gillis? It does not mention it in your short bio but then again you might just not have included it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXzugu39pKM
From the point of view of cosmology. If the cosmic ray argument is to be refuted as unsafe we need to look closer at understanding the conditions for the natural creation of ordinary black holes which arise according to some precisely at the centre of galaxies. If one does compare with the geometric setup of fission or fusion devices, spherical implosion basically, one has a model that gives that the centerpoint of the sphere is acoustically silent because all periferically originating waves negate each other at that point. In looking at an array of centrically oriented cosmic ray sources "stars" generating centrifocally cosmic rays accelerating streams of mBH:s It is obvious that at least some mBH collisions may occur at the galactic focal point by impact slowing at least some mBH:s to a standstill from their initial close to luminal velocities. This vould suggest that concentric impacting mBH flux could contribute to explaining the observed predilection for galactic centres attributed to black holes. Suggesting thus that low speed be an actual factor in their becoming increasingly energetic through allowing their condensing interaction with surrounding matter and other mBH.
Why did the US Congress halt the Texas Superconducting Super Collider project? Pascal's Wager is interesting. There can only be one God, since the creator would have no equal. "thousands of faiths would be better represented as thousands of religions. Which religion would be be correct? None or all. Faith is what determines final destiny.
Hank's picture
Why did the US Congress halt the Texas Superconducting Super Collider project?

It was wildly over budget and unlikely to stop hemorrhaging money. Europeans have a lot more patience for budgetary sinkholes (CERN's budget overrun is equal to the SSC's total budget) than Americans do.

Obviously we haven't missed much not having it.

Hi, I am NOT a scientist, just a thinker. Therefore what i will say now will most likely sound strange. Everything that moves will eventually stop when hitting resistance one way or another, a BH in my eyes is nothing more than a dense attracting particle which is not really a hole,..... So therefore a "BH" consists of matter, if you would ad a opposite to this it would be cancelled,..,.... every measurement of neutrino stars are also based on just theory, they are assumptions made on combining data from primitive tools,... what if they where build around a core of lets say anti matter, it would explain to me why tiny BH would be cancelled upon impact. If something goes "wrong" in the LHC it would be an explosion, this seems more likely because of the energy used and the surrounding factors after breaking the vacuum. That what we cannot measure might still be there, tiny matter unmeasurable right now might still be there, many things of a little is still a lot. If i have a soccer game and i cannot see the players, the ball seems to move in a way i can not calculate, when i develop the tools to see the players i understand the movements of the ball, also those players are coached so steered, every action is connected,what is the ball made of what are those items made of, why is the field flat, why is it being used like that etc etc,.... However when i remove that ball, the players would be useless and have nothing to do,..... so everything ends where it started and everything starts where it ends. Now for most of you, that what i wrote is looking like BS and childs thinking, as i said before, i have really no understanding what so ever about what is in all of your books, i just like to think, and i think tomorrow the worst thing that can happen is no more geneva, and some shockwaves,..... nothing major. A BH can be cancelled out, maybe by radiation decay, but most likely by adding an variable that is the opposite, so basicly making the implosion implode and seize. Well, Bye now from someone who finds your science funny and interesting, i think the feeling is mutual (most likely the funny only). (ps,.. you dig the ground and move trough it, you swim the water and move trough it, you walk in air and move trough it. maybe now you will master time, more then just forward.)
As I see it: Their trying to re-enact the exact conditions of the initial Big Bang (only a theory) as closely as all of our availble resources will allow (meaning their not holding anything back). Doesn't this seem utterly insane if you were witnessing this from anything but their egoistic perspective? A) So if their really right, everything is smoked. B)If their wrong, then they ask for much, much more money until A is achieved. A great plan, or where does it end?
Philosophy lags behind science as it requires feedback from the natural world, which usually is provided by scientists. Some scientist's approaches to solving some of the most difficult scientific problems have been notably philosophical (i.e Einstein's relativities and much of Fred Hoyle's unjustly discredited work). I think some of the most cogent arguments for more emphasis being put on the possible malignant outcomes of experimentation, rather than on forging ahead at the maximum possible speed in experimental physics in particular, ought to be philosophical in nature. That is philosophy and even intuition must take up leadership functions. I am no scientist, just somebody interested in the world and philosophy and any experimentation that might bring the two coherently together. I have published a blog response at http://bigsciencenews.blogspot.com/2008/07/superfluids-becs-and-bosenovas-ultimate.html and I would like to reprint it here as it comes from an intuitive and spontaneous approach to the recent events at the LHC: ---------------BEGINNING OF RESPONSE------------------------ As an "almost" complete layperson in matters of particle physics, I do however see a philosophical approach to the LHC experiment which should be discussed. Even if this current experiment does not lead to the creation of a space stationary black hole that does not evaporate (and thus logically, as a gas only expands because that's the only way the molecules can go, will grow), the possibility that the next such experiment, or the one after it may lead to the end of space and time for us must be seriously discussed by the scientific and non-scientific community. It is entirely possible that the odd findings of SETI and other quests to discover extraterrestrial communications are directly linked to such experiments. The fact that no extraterrestrial artificial signals are found can be well explained by considering that any advanced civilisation which develops the ability to send detectable interstellar signals, whether willingly or unwittingly, will have developed, within a relatively short time-frame (similar to that between Marconi's successes and the LHC experiment), technologies to create stationary black holes. If it is inevitable that they will discover such experiments (and it seems likely if we assign them the attribute of scientific ability and interest which enables technological communication)the thought must turn to the presumption that all civilisations that developed technologies before us would have also done this very experiment before us. Then why aren't they out their. I worry that the answer might be that all these civilisations push the boundaries of their experimentation until they "commit" an experiment that destroys time and space for them and their region of the universe. It is very valid to point out that all naturally created black holes will not be stationary in regards to the earth. After all they are the result of matter and energy rich processes which, in an ever moving universe, are always more likely to be in contrary motion in respect to the earth. Even if they circled around our solar system or within the core areas of the galaxy or universe, they would be governed by Newtonian physics in regard to their position within such systems. Much as the moon is benign to us because of the centrifugal (centripetal?) forces that keep it on a steady track. If, however, for example, we made the moon stationary on the earth's surface, it would certainly destroy the current fragile development of like on earth and would massively disrupt the geophysics of the planet. A stationary black hole ( in respect to an inhabited planet) is surely not naturally possible. Perhaps we are the first civilisation that can escape the inevitable conduction of the last experiment. If not, we must do all in our powers to create a warning beacon (probably from the remains of our regional matter under the effect of the black hole) for other civilisations on the brink of trying these experiments. Indeed, perhaps there are already many such beacons out there and we have not been able to decipher them or the demised civilisation was not left with enough time to install them adequately. I hope this provokes some thought. Frank ------------------END OF RESPONSE---------------------------
Do any of you really think any of us normal folk that make up 99% of the people on this planet care about any of this? What we do care about is the fact CERN have stated a 1-10% chance that we all die (the whole planet) it doesn't take a genius to realize whatever they may or might not find, prove or win is not worth that chance. CERN are madmen to think otherwise and the world should stop them and charge them with terrorism.
Hank's picture
What we do care about is the fact CERN have stated a 1-10% chance that we all die

Show your data.

http://capitolhillblue.com/cont/blog/3138 This is RichardKanePA-2 again comment 5747 * Anonymous Mom, I wouldn't want to have declared Einstein to be a mad man, but perhaps if he was still alive this time he would join me in emailing, mailing, and marching on the UN. Come on all of us fearful citizens, the US pushed the world around too much. I don't blame the Hawaiian judge who was asked, on a technicality, to stop an experiment in Europe, instead found a technicality that it was submitted too late, to dismiss the suite. If the subatomic world is as empty as outer space, and every once in a while a cosmic ray comes in contact with a bit of matter and turns into or gets surrounded by a mini Black Hole and out into space, perhaps the near cosmic rays in the European underground laboratory will continue around the race track and shoot into space when the magnets are turned off. However if the track slowly decelerates, the microscopic sucking machine might just be thrown to the rocks surrounding the experiment, a quiet stable place to grow ever more powerful. Anyway a future bin Laden could threaten to destroy the Galaxy unless everyone did everything his way. Someday kids may have nuclear-powered toys with black holes attached to gather the nuclear waist and radiation. A self compressing garbage cans, but perhaps we should wait a few years or centuries to conduct these experiments. Please everyone, join me faxing and mailing the UN and respond on my blog, capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/11416#comment-41936 http://capitolhillblue.com/cont/blog/3138 capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/11416
I have to say all I read in the article is very interesting and I can see professor Rossler is a very wise man. I personally dont believe in the big bang either and I especially like the part when professor speaks about the dogmatism in todays society! I just hope people at CERN dont mess up our planet as there seem to be no way to stop them! I wish critics of the CERN were wrong, however sadly I am not convinced they are!
What do you mean nothing we can do. Email, write and a number of us visit with placards Ki-moon's office at the UN or invite him to an auditorium to speak to us on this issue, and comment on my blog. RichardKanePA-2 #comment-5747 capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/11416#comment-41936 capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/11416
Theres nothing to loose if CERN scietist will stop for a moment, and discuss the safety of this experiment.Where talking here the fate of human kind, not there fate please. They accepted the fact that they are in the field of the unknown, and because of this, anything goes, including the destruction of dear Earth. They are into a research project that is exclusively on the dominion of our GOD, the creator of every thing.Is the CERN scientist want an equal footing with GOD??? Thats scary ! ! ! So please involve us all in the discussion of this project, before going ahead. WHY go in a hurry for something that we can leave even with out it please? ! It seems the CERN people is doing these project just for the sake of their own curiosity and satisfaction. They cant even have the chance to correct things , when these project fails, I hope and pray it wont.
The simple reality is that very few of us (including alan or Dr Rösslerthe biologist) have any real understanding of this topic. The only one's who do, luckily for us, are those conducting the experiment. The