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By Hank Campbell | May 10th 2008 12:28 PM | 6 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
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About Hank Campbell

A wise man once said Darwin had the greatest idea anyone ever had. Others may prefer Newton or Archimedes.

Probably no one ever said a website was the greatest idea anyone ever had, but a website... Full Bio

One consistent feature of human progress throughout history has been that science will come up with creative answers to current problems. When ancient people living in small tribes were running out of game to hunt, some leaders thought rationing and mitigation were the answers. They would have created a culture of despair. Domesticated livestock was the answer instead and then efficient agriculture and even terraforming.

Based on that confidence, a lot of people, me included, assume that global warming can be solved by some 'future technology' as yet undeveloped. Killing our economy by 25% now (yes, imagine it 25% worse) to stave off a .5 degree warming problem in 50 years is positively un-scientific.

But hope is not how things get done. People point to Y2K and say 'it was all hype, nothing happened' but they forget that's because we spent billions prior to that fixing problems. Likewise, acid rain was a huge concern in the 1980s and is not now because problems were addressed squarely.

Capturing and storing carbon dioxide is a solution the anti-global warming contingent (read, political pundits and bloggers using science to attack Democrats) say can keep us in an SUV Promised Land today. Then future technology can deal with it permanently.

To those people (in this case, Republicans) I say, 'Pretend a Democrat is saying Social Security will take care of itself in the future. Would you be skeptical?' Well, that's how I feel when they insist nothing needs to change and it will all be okay.

As an interim solution while we wait for future magic bullets, C02 Capture and Storage is all the rage but, lacking any reliable testing on a large scale, we have to assume it is more hype than solution.

The UN Climate Panel released a report on CCS last year and it was unanimously supported by the research community. It's easy to get unanimous support on UN committees. You just throw off the people who disagree. The Climate Panel says CCS can account for a reduction of between 15 and 55 percent of greenhouse gases by 2100. 15 to 55 percent is so broad it is almost meaningless, which is another way to get unanimous agreement.

The EU also promotes CCS as a solution, even going so far as to say that captured carbon dioxide placed in the Earth's crust would count as never having been produced.

Yes, that semantic wizardry would mean coal power plants are now the same as solar energy when it comes to 'sustainability.'

Currently, CCS is storing a few million tons but to have a meaningful impact on global warming would require the storage of several billion tons - and an entire transportation industry would have to be created just to store carbon dioxide. We would basically be storing carbon dioxide we created in the transportation of ... carbon dioxide. The world's largest transported good would not be food, people or oil - it would be CO2.

Only the EU could think of that as a good solution. The economic calculations, even over a hundred-year horizon, don't factor in that the costs for virtually every government project ever created were hugely underestimated. To save us in the future, CCS would have to be paid for and running in 15 years but only 20 percent of the general public has even heard of CCS today. What kind of PR campaign would it take to get awareness and implementation of a multi-trillion dollar, multi-national project in the next few years?

“CCS needs to become known and be debated,” says Anders Hansson, who is defending his dissertation at the Department of Technology and Social Change, Linköping University in Sweden, on this topic. “Otherwise there is a risk of a backlash similar to what happened with nuclear power.”

He's right. Here in California protests stopped a law about carbon dioxide storage last year. Granted, this is California, where protesting without knowing what they are talking about is a cultural pastime, but the nuclear issue still resonates here.

There are two primary concerns: first, that CCS will be a bandage that prevents the real problem from being cured; second, that an untested technology will be implemented on a large scale at a cost of trillions of dollars, and perhaps not work, or perhaps create a new government industry that adds greenhouse gases.

One thing optimists have right - science will find an answer to the greenhouse gas problem. That doesn't mean one solution we know of today will be a cure-all until that happens. CCS is a fine idea and it should be used along with other creative ways to reduce the impact of emissions and, yes, we could all do with few less greenhouse gases anyway, but we can't roll the dice when we're dealing with the planet.

Comments

"Killing our economy by 25% now ... to stave off a .5 degree warming problem in 50 years" is entirely the wrong way to look at it. Try "killing our economy by 25% now to stave off catastrophic extinction within a few generations.

If it were simply a matter of polar bears, or sea-level rise, I'd agree. But it seems we may well be in danger of wiping out our great-grandchildren. I'd rather take the 25% hit now, thank you!

If carbon sequestration happens to work out, that's great -- I'll be happy to keep my technodependent lifestyle. If it doesn't, I'll be OK giving it up so Shakespeare will still have readers in 2200.

The sad part is, people actually believe this cock & bull story. Thank you so much Al Gore.

It's not just Al Gore. It's also the IPCC, and a number of independent researchers. If you think it's a "cock & bull story", state your arguments; we have no time for dismissals based on wishful thinking.

Hank's picture
Update: CO2 Burial Schemes Get Green Light. Apparently the DOE doesn't read my column.

The U.S. Department of Energy announced earlier this month their funding -- to the tune of $126 million -- of two large-scale carbon storage projects in California and the Midwest. The DOE had previously announced $253.7 million in funding for four others.

It's small potatoes compared to how much the government could be wasting (small blessing) but still a disturbing trend.

Crudely, the carbon dioxide spewed from power stations will be, well, captured and stored. But there the problems begin. The government may have pledged £25m to help the climate change busting technology along earlier this week, but significant obstacles remain with two parts of the plan: capture and storage.

Provoking Fate with Carbon Capture and Storage.

The very idea that we can capture and store the CO2 underground after burning coal in a powerhouse seems to have been a runaway winner, seemingly solving all of the coal industries problems at once. As a form of carbon, coal is very stable and unless burned, will remain the way it is forever. Once burnt, it will be converted into a gas that has potential to do even more harm than to become just a green house gas.

Back in the 1980’s, a lake in the Cameroon’s, Africa, explosively vented millions of cubic metres of CO2 gas overnight killing all animal life within the area. All told there were over 1800 people killed in the event. This was caused by CO2 building up at the bottom of the lake bed and when the pressure got too high, exploding through the surface. A mighty demonstration of what can happen.

Since the idea of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) was first mooted, there have been murmurings of discontent about the safety of the procedure. Now some of the most reputable scientists and geologists are becoming alarmed at how aspects of CCS could be downright life threatening. After the CO2 has been extracted from the exhaust gas of a power station, compressed and pumped deep into the earth into an old oil well or a purposely drilled well in porus rocks, the gas will expand as it spreads underground, increasing the pressure of the surrounding rocks over an ever increasing area. This could be the tipping point which could cause an earthquake and even possibly a tsunami! Don’t forget, we are talking multi-millions of cubic metres of CO2 here.

How ever the risks don’t stop here. CO2 reacts with water forming carbonic acid. This acid entering an otherwise stable aquifer, can cause further gas generation and weaken masses of rocks by dissolving them or portions of them. When this has happened, pressures don’t necessarily have to rise much if at all. Rock strata will have been weakened and will be able to catastrophically shift or break. Not only is there a serious risk of a man-made earth quake, there is the huge potential for the CO2 to out-gas back to the atmosphere through the newly cracked and shattered earth. Proponents of CCS, in spite of their assurances of safety, cannot predict the behaviour of buried CO2 with any degree of certainty. They just don’t know how safe it is and further more; they have no way of arriving at a reasonable conclusion on this aspect.

This is not just some alarmist spouting. This is from reputable geologists. There already has been an incident in the North Sea where a CCS facility may have triggered a magnitude 4 earthquake in 2008. Any bigger and that would have definitely been a tsunami. Read more detail in the New Scientist magazine, 26th Sept 2009.

It is not as if we have no alternative and safer systems available to us. Whilst CCS is unproven technology with serious inherent risks, solar technology has already come of age. Isn’t it foolish for our government to invest $2.4 billion in this untried, unsafe technology which will only continue to pollute our planet? I believe that this money and more should be immediately re-allocated to building solar base load power stations around Australia. We have the technology, the land and the sunshine, and we do know it works and is safe. An Australian designed solar base load power station is already being built in California so you can’t say we don’t have the technology. If Big Arnie can do it, why can’t we do it, particularly when it was an Aussie that designed it? You can’t even use the excuse that there will be massive job losses in the coal industry as an excuse.

There is no reason why the coal companies could not turn to building solar power stations and tender on the projects. After all, an ultimate best practice aim would be to leave the coal in the ground so we might as well start now. The so-called net job losses initially, will ultimately turn into job shifts where mining employees shift from mining to the construction and support industries. To try to claim that there will be massive job losses as an excuse to continue with CCS is totally ludicrous.

Mike J

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