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By Hank Campbell | April 22nd 2009 07:03 PM | 5 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
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About Hank Campbell

A wise man once said Darwin had the greatest idea anyone ever had. Others may prefer Newton or Archimedes.

Probably no one ever said a website was the greatest idea anyone ever had, but a website... Full Bio

When I was a kid, 'toxic' assets were not assets at all; they were called 'liabilities.'    That's why asset and liability columns exist on these things called 'spreadsheets.'   But I am neither a politician nor a banker so I have poor grasp of things I know nothing about.  Much like this Timothy Geithner guy.

But apparently toxic assets do exist because banks around the world are being dragged down by them.   Who would have thought that mortgage-backed securities based on a housing bubble fueled by people who couldn't afford their homes would ever be a problem?   Well, me, but I was told I hated poor people and minorities for daring to ask.

Only linguists and people like me who don't understand economic stupidity think a toxic asset is a contradiction in terms.   W. Bruce Johnson, professor of accounting in the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business, says it's pretty accurate, even if it doesn't exist in accounting terms.

"I don't know if that was coined by a journalist or a politician or someone who works in finance, but in accounting, we don't call anything a toxic asset," he said.  

So maybe journalists are the toxic assets.    Instead of talking about  the thrill running down their leg over Barack Obama,  they could have been asking why people with five figure incomes were acquiring seven figure homes.

Nope, the toxic assets are definitely real estate, not the Fourth Estate.    "These are securities that are real assets that generate cash flow for their owners," said Johnson. "They just don't generate as much cash flow as was priced into the security, so the value may be less than what the owner paid for it."

So it's concern about what people paid, not what they can sell it for, that got us into trouble?   Obviously one solution is to change some rules.   Ridiculous mark to market requirements haven't helped.   Mandating that loans go to the riskiest people, which we required again in the stimulus package, are as dumb as the policies that got us here.   

That's not to say you can't find bargains.   I won't mention any names, but I know of one savvy investor who has almost broken even on his Citi stock, even though the original prices in said portfolio was near 50, because people tend to pile on unnecessarily when they worry about a company.    But using the dumbest accounting rules of mortgage securities, all my money was gone in that stock - even though it wasn't.    That's basically what mortgage holders are required to do - declare a loss on property they have not sold.

100% of people aren't unemployed, the economy is not at a halt and not all assets are valueless, some just didn't have the 20% fat in the appraisal versus mortgage number banks used to require before they got Congressional hearings and newspaper articles for turning poor people down.  The clean solution was to let some banks fail and make some people rent.

Instead, the government got even more involved and investors got spooked that the dumb guys in charge of companies actually knew less about what their properties were really worth than the government and crazy accounting rules made the 'asset value' for some companies drop below the minimum capital requirements, putting those companies in violation of ... federal law, which then supposedly came to the rescue.    Yes, the federal government decided overvalued assets had to be written down for banks even though they are sitting on $100 trillion (that's a 't') in unfunded Social Security obligations - over 6 times the size of our entire economy and that doesn't count Medicare, which is even worse.   So the federal government is our toxic asset?

It depends.   Granted, the current administration seems to be running things like it's a video game with a save point where they can just start over if things go bad but at least they aren't doing it with expensive missiles, like the last one.

Linguistics shall answer all.  
 
"Impaired assets"  is a better term than 'toxic'.  "Any impaired asset has to be written down to some kind of realizable value as soon as it's declared impaired," Johnson said. "It's toxic in that it can lead to severe problems for the company that has to write it down to a value that's lower than what they expected."

It means an asset that an owner can't sell for as much as they paid for it, like moldy grain sitting in an elevator.

Errr, wouldn't that actually be toxic?

"Moldy grain can still be used, it still has value," Johnson said. "But it doesn't have as much value as the owner paid the farmer for it when it wasn't moldy."

So there you have it.   Your finance stocks are like moldy grain.   Didn't linguistics make you feel all better?   

Fortunately, unlike moldy grain, your stocks are likely to go up in value over time, provided we can stay disciplined enough to not run out with more mortgages for bad risk homeowners.

Oops.  Too late.

Comments

I was told I hated poor people and minorities for daring to ask.

Spending beyond means is an American, a western thing, not just a poor or minority thing.  This country, and many developed others, are based on credit.  All the way from the richest CEO to the cafe waiter, spend beyond your means and then declare bankruptcy - that's no way to live.  But, once I moved here a long time ago, I realized it was the American way. It's just that now the banks cannot hold the weight of American debt any longer.  So, ask the creditors, too, who raise credit limits way beyond income.  Example: Even as we are in this mess, why did I get a phone offer from Bank of America yesterday to raise my credit limit to an amount that my total family income could not repay for decades?  The banking system has not learned and never will.  New crap, same as the old crap.


Hank's picture
So you see my confusion.    Government and social groups targeted banks in the 1990s because they did analyses and saw a larger percentage of poor people (which will be minorities here, just like in Europe or maybe anywhere) were denied.    Indignant newspaper articles and television programs followed, rules were put in place and culturally those people were told they needed to own homes or they were missing out.  

But that influx of money toward housing that could be purchased by poor people drove the cost of that housing up in an unnatural way - the competition for cheap housing far outpaced that for more expensive, which meant the people already least likely to be able to pay had even greater mortgage debt.

When it collapsed, 'deregulation' was magically blamed - governments hate deregulation because it puts them out of the action.   But it was regulating deregulation that caused the problem and we knew it would happen because the same thing happened here in California when the state government chose to regulate deregulation of energy and power companies couldn't buy electricity.   That guy got recalled for his screw-ups.   Obama can't take the blame for causing this (it was a Democrat president who started it but a Republican Congress) but he could have fixed it by not ordering banks to give new loans to the same people who just defaulted.

For the record, I want to slap Larry Summers. For a number of things. But that's neither here nor there.

Have money, will spend; I agree that there's no point in dangling loans in front of people who have no self-control and will overdo it.  But, I wonder if giving new loans to the same people who just defaulted is simply a way to keep them from being absolutely penniless (after all, fat, Wall St. execs flushed their retirements, too) and homeless, which, in a growing number of cities, is turning into a public safety issue.  Here in Ohio, the number of beggars, assaults and B&Es in former "safe" neighborhoods (most with no home alarms, women&kids walk the streets alone) is rising. 

Again, I don't suggest that we offer money to keep crime down or that that is even Obama's rationale.  But, what sort of country are we if we don't offer the slightest safety net?  Of course, the desired income is a safety net in return for corporate and individual behavior change (or else you go to jail and like it). 

Gerhard Adam's picture
I don't know enough about all the players to comfortably lay blame anywhere, but it seems that one of the primary problems is that no one has any patience, and greed is rampant.

Too many executives take money before it is earned.  Too many companies practice questionable if not shady accounting practices to put a better face on their practices.

The talk seems to focus on investors as if they are the engine driving the economy.  The consumer mentality is what drives the economy, therefore the only avenue that makes sense is to get money into the hands of those that will spend it.  Generally, it's pretty straightforward to see that it is the poor that are most likely to spend money, although one can't over do it.  Giving loans to the poor makes good sense, provided it is done in small enough pieces to where the money can be spent and repaid.  In this way there is a general flow of revenue that everyone can derive some benefit from.

If the loans are too high so that they can't be repaid then everyone loses and that's simply stupid.  There is no business model that can be based on the presumption of default.  Yet, this is precisely what the financial institutions did, because they thought that someone else would be dumb enough to take these "toxic assets" off their hands, and then they could walk away profitable and begin spending their bonuses.

It apparently never occurred to anyone that you couldn't just pass valueless paper around and simply assume there would always be someone to buy it from you.  Once that stopped, the market forces actually had a vested interest in "shorting" the losers and betting on their failure.

The other element of greed was the assumption that loans could be repaid by financial institutions practicing their own version of loan-sharking.  Arbitrarily high interest rates will simply stifle the economy and the continuous practice of raising interest rates, charging late fees, overlimit fees, etc. is the culmination of an element of greed that actually undercut the ability of customers to repay their loans. 

When this is coupled with the business practice of off-shoring the low income jobs, there is no longer a safety net when an individual loses their job, so everything starts the downward spiral.  Businesses were looking to maximize profits by reducing labor costs by shipping those jobs overseas.  Once again, it apparently never occurred to anyone that you cannot have a consumer market strategy if you are removing the jobs that provide the means for people to be consumers in the first place.  Lower paying jobs were always a "safety net" so that if someone lost their job there was the possibility that they could still maintain some degree of financial stability by taking a lower paying job until things turned around.  In many cases, instead of seeing a reduction in income, it now becomes a total loss. 

The modern economy depends on a symbiotic relationship between business and consumers, so the idea that each operates independently of each other and is subject to different behavioral criteria needs to be discarded and a serious examination of the interactions that an economy depends on be removed from the lame political agendas now driving them and a serious consideration into how to maintain markets and not simply talk about fantasy models that don't actually exist.

Steve Davis's picture
if someone lost their job there was the possibility that they could still maintain some degree of financial stability by taking a lower paying job until things turned around.
That's a good point Gerhard. The practice of exporting jobs to countries with lower wages was always a risky strategy as it inevitably made the domestic economy more fragile, less robust, as your example shows.
As for "toxic assets" Hank, weren't they discovered by the bloke who found "negative growth"?

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