Let's face it, we all have an Achilles Heel.  That certain something that turns your normally rational brain into a quivering mass of goo.  Next thing you know Alec Baldwin has a straw in your cranium and you've filled out an application for The Festival of Idiots.  For Stan Marsh, it's Wendy.  For Niles Crane, it's Daphne Moon.  For Hank, it's Russian rhythm gymnasts.  For all other heterosexual American males, it's Elisha Cuthbert.  And, for George Will, it's Global Warming.

The issue of global warming starts with a very basic question: Are global temperatures trending up? 

A "YES" invites a number of important, but difficult questions: Why are they trending up?  Should we care that they are trending up?  What should we do about it?

It is fair to say that Will does not like the answers those questions, especially that "what should we do about it?" one, have been getting from places like the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.  It would be so much easier if the first answer had been "NO".

Reducing carbon emissions supposedly will reverse warming, which is allegedly occurring even though, according to statistics published by the World Meteorological Organization, there has not been a warmer year on record than 1998.  
    -George Will (2 April 2009)

HOLY CRAP!  1998 was the warmest year ever (EVER!).  From that starting point, Will "reasoned" that, if global
temperatures were really trending upward, at least one of the next ten years would be warmer, but none were.  Obvious conclusion: global warming is a myth¹.  Imagine if, instead of wasting time looking at statistical trends in the data, those silly climatologists had simply focused on a single extreme data point.  Someone please tell all those lovely people on the low-lying South Pacific islands to stop bailing.

Smelling a statistical revolution, and cooking bacon, in the air, The Festival staff tested the "Will Method" on a phenomenon Will actually cares about, believes in, and does not really matter: the "glut" of home runs in baseball.

Baseball lightning is becoming as common, and about as exciting, as lightning bugs. . .Otherwise baseball, so rich in subtleties, may become just a game of batters swinging from their heels.
    -George Will on 8 May 2000

In 2000, 5639 home runs² were hit, the mostest³ ever (EVER!).  No season since has reached 5500.  According to the "Will Method," there is no long term upward trend in home run frequency, which would have ruined the game anyway by making it more appealing to the proletariat, who can no longer afford to attend the games anyway.  In reality, however, the frequency of home runs has nearly sextupled between 1919 and 2008.  As the French say, "Le oops." 

If the "Will Method" does not work for baseball, what does that mean for global warming?  Someone please tell all those lovely people on the low-lying South Pacific islands to start bailing, again.

Let's take a look at the WMO's Statement on the Global Climate (the one easily confused with a fourth grade earth science report⁴).

According to this eye catching graph of the 50 warmest years since the 1850s:
you can clearly see (by studious application of a magnifying glass) that, HOLY CRAP!  1998 was the warmest year ever (EVER!).  You can also see that 9 of the next 12 warmest years ever (EVER!) occurred after 1998.  Using non-Willian statistics, the correlation⁵ between chronological year and global temperature is 0.81, strongly implying that the world is getting warmer. 

The "Will Method" assumes that real trends act like ideal trends (i.e., they follow straight lines).  This is like expecting a .250 batter to go 1 for 4 every game.  Imagine the implications for baseball.  The Yankees would actually win everything.  Thankfully, real trends, be they global temperatures or home run frequencies, do not follow perfect lines like ideal trends.  Real trends are noisy.  If real trends were not noisy, there would be no point in playing the game.

Mr. Will is entitled to his own opinions, but not his own facts.  For trying to dodge the hard questions, we welcome George F. Will to The Festival of Idiots.

1: By myth, we mean a massive group delusion of scientists motivated
by various causes centering around an elite, liberal dislike of
capitalism.
2: Interestingly, the power mad American League with its designated hitter abomination and exhibition (aka, All-Star) game dominance has been hitting fewer home runs than the nancified National League.
3: Still far less than Will's extrapolation of 6254.  We like to believe that Will will be secretly pleased that someone dared to remember and criticize a wildly inaccurate and alarmist prediction.
4: Rugbyologist Tip: If you want to mix science and kid's art, hire Terry Ard.
5: Spearman's rank correlation test (rho)