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By Fred Phillips | September 10th 2009 08:26 AM | 3 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
About Fred

After a dozen years as a market research executive, Fred Phillips was professor, dean, and vice provost at a variety of universities in the US, Europe...

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(This continues a discussion of the topic I started here, in Spanish, and in §5.4 of this published paper, in English. Not necessary to read those first; this blog stands on its own.)

There are many definitions of sustainability. Perhaps the most familiar one is the Brundtland report’s: "Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."[1]

An admirable sentiment, but a suspicious one. Suppose I borrow money to buy a house that I will bequeath to my children. I may die tomorrow, and the market may go down, leaving the kids unable to sell the house for the amount of the debt. I have compromised their ability to meet their own needs.

Suppose I borrow money to build a green business. Green firms face the same business risks as other companies; my children might inherit a profitable business, or they might inherit nothing, my assets wiped out by the bankruptcy of my enterprise. With no funds to complete their education,  they’ll have to take out loans, and… well, you get the idea.

Should I then avoid all borrowing?

I cannot guarantee that I won’t compromise the future. Should that be an excuse for doing nothing – taking no risk – now?

Obviously, no. A green future depends on innovation. Innovation needs to be financed via debt or equity. And that implies risk.

In fact, abjuring risk compromises the future. We dither about the “value” of space exploration, for instance, when resources plentiful unto the nth generation are no farther away than the asteroid belt.

The US now has a nine trillion dollar debt. If that doesn’t compromise future generations, I can’t guess what does. Even fiscal conservatives admit that the large part of the nine trillion spent on bank bailouts was necessary, to keep the economy from death-spiraling.

Yet we continue to talk about sustainability. So I think we don’t really believe a definition that emphasizes not compromising future generations. I mean, we care about future generations, but we also have confidence that they’ll be smart and compassionate enough to do what we do: Try to fix the broken things we’ve inherited; innovate boldly;
and do what we can to create a better future.

Past generations have done this for us, thus proving that there is such a thing as a free lunch. Using a telephone is free, for example. (If you deal with AT&T or Verizon, you’ll argue with that, but bear with me.) Your 16th-century ancestors had no phones. You did not personally have to invent the telephone. Yet you get to use a phone – solely by virtue of your luck in being born in the 20th century.[2] Phone calls substitute for polluting transportation, so they're green. Free, green lunch.

We want to give our descendants more free green lunches. But that part about not compromising their ability to meet their needs – where did it come from?

It echoes injunctions of the Abrahamic religions:


  • “Do not charge your brother interest, whether on money or food or anything else that may earn interest.” (Deuteronomy 23:19)

  • Jesus driving moneylenders from the temple (Matthew 21:12)

  • The Koranic prohibition on the charging of interest, which it characterizes as oppressive and exploitative (Qur’an 2:279)[3]    



One wonders whether the Brundtland report’s slant on sustainability was underpinned, perhaps unconsciously, by the religious feelings of its writers. And, with our current economic mess having been driven by mortgage loans, one cannot call such an underpinning totally wrong-headed.

(Incidentally, the three Abrahamic traditions do not prohibit equity investment – equity is in fact the central principle of modern Islamic banking – notwithstanding that ownership can be exploitative as well.)

Compared to the world of the Prophets, though, ours is more crowded, interdependent, and specialized.  The few weeks we spent this year with no credit market to speak of were not the kind of weeks we would wish on our descendants. It is necessary and unavoidable that we lend and borrow when it seems wise to risk the consequences. The consequences may compromise future generations’ assets.

I offer, with apologies to Dr. Brundtland, a modification of her principle: Let us always do our best for the future, while not compromising (too much) our enjoyment of the present, nor our capacity for taking bold risk.

I intend to use these ideas in my November keynote speech at the UNESCO-World Technopolis Association conference in South Korea. Your comments will help me sharpen them. I’d say "thanks in advance," but that would be lending, wouldn’t it?



[1] Page 8, World Commission on Environment and Development. Our Common Future. (Oxford, Great Britain: Oxford University Press, 1987). (Known as the Brundtland report, after Gro Harlem Brundtland, Chair of the Commission)
[2] Apologies to any 8-year-olds who may read this blog.
[3] Institute of Islamic Banking and Insurance





Comments

Gerhard Adam
Let us always do our best for the future, while not compromising (too
much) our enjoyment of the present, nor our capacity for taking bold
risk.

But isn't this precisely the problem?  Businesses embolden to take risks with little or no consequences?  Government safety nets for bad corporate decisions, while the taxpayer subsidizes their golden parachutes on the backs of future generations?  Even those businesses that went under had few consequences for those in charge that made those decisions. 

In addition, the entire premise of Wall Street is suspect when those playing money games have no stake in the outcome of the business beyond their own immediate profit.  They don't think in terms of long-term strategies or behaviors, they think quarter to quarter and the business community has become dependent on that mechanism for their operation.

There's no problem with risk, but neither is there a problem with failure and unless the two go hand-in-hand, then it is unsustainable.

BTW, it's been a long time since I heard that phrase (from the title - Wimpy).


Fred Phillips
Gerhard, thanks for your comment.
I did say, lend and borrow when the risk seems prudent. Until we learn to see the future with 100% accuracy, there will be risk that affects our lives and our descendants'. If we hope to find a technological path to greenness, part of the risk will be financial and technological. (An example of the latter being the "nanomachines and gray goo" scare.)

One of the problems of the economic meltdown and the recovery from it is, it's hard to tell the difference between a guy who took a prudent risk and lost, and a guy who took a stupid, uninformed risk. At least, it's hard to tell until he's done it many times, at which point the damage could be severe.

As for the safety nets, you're talking about "moral hazard." Former Sec'y of Labor Robert Reich had a good blog about that. (Scroll part way down the page until you see "THURSDAY, MARCH 20, 2008: Moral Hazard Redux.")

The Wall Streeters do not understand that if we do not take care of each other, and care of each other's grandchildren and not just our own, we cannot claim to be a nation. This, from Leonard Pitt's column of yesterday, is scary as hell, and applies as much to the sustainability question as to the health care debate. How quickly people forget that they were educated at taxpayer-funded schools, and commute on taxpayer-funded roads.
A few days ago, a woman running for office in Pennsylvania e-mailed me about her encounter with a voter who objected to the idea of, as he put it, paying for his neighbor's health insurance. She reminded him that to live in a society is to be interdependent. We all pay for libraries, we all pay for national defense, we all pay to school our kids. Except, he said he doesn't want to pay to educate someone else's kids, either. We are not interdependent, the man insisted. We are alone, each man in it by and for himself.

You might call that view an aberration. My fear is that it is a harbinger. My fear is that we are a people stampeded by and toward political extremes, and that in our shrillness, our ignorance, our paranoia, hatefulness and fear, we dig a trench through common ground and make this nation ungovernable.

The yin and yang of science and engineering is that we do a lot of yin things like conservation, learning to get along with each other, and so on. But we continue to need yang things also: Space and deep-sea exploration, large hadron colliders, "boldly going where none have gone before." They're risky, but if we don't do them, we lose our souls, as well as our chances at those energy and mineral resources that we'd find.

p.s. Are you wearing the right shoes? Everyone on ScientificBlogging will appreciate this cartoon from the New Yorker.



Hank
Egads, if you have to wear shoes to blog, what's the point??

On Gerhard's point, we tend to disagree.  I would argue that government involvement under the guise of protecting consumers is what leads to these messes.   California was the classic example of  over-regulating deregulation, in energy, which led to a fiasco, but mortgages now are.

In the 1990s bureaucrats let some data massaging allege there was racial discrimination in mortgages so if any minority was turned down, the paperwork was overwhelming but mortgages for bad risks got all kinds of guarantees.   When that finally blew up (even Bush, not the brightest candle, said it had to stop 5 years ago, and was ignored even by the Republican Congress) the government bailed these companies out by telling them how incompetent they were ... and then insisted they only use the bailout money for the exact same risky people that just defaulted.

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