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By Gerhard Adam | October 14th 2009 04:24 PM | 9 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
It seems simple enough to answer the question whether something poses a risk or not.  The answers can only be "yes", "no", or "we don't know".  A "yes" response would then be qualified by the probability or likelihood of risk entailed, as well as the context in which it exists.  A "no" should be definitive and not have any exceptions, while a "we don't know" is ambiguous enough to suggest that there is no definite answer, as yet.

A recent article on the risks of cell phones illustrates one of the reasons why the public tends to be distrustful of many of these findings.  It is clear that games are being played and agendas being driven.

Let me say that, at present, it appears that the only truthful answer to the question of cell phone risk is in the direction of "we don't know", although there are indications that it isn't likely to be an unequivocal "no".

In the first place we find that some of the more positive research results were funded by the industry itself and appear to have been less than rigorous.
"But a subgroup of studies that employed more rigorous methodology -- most conducted by the same research team in Sweden -- reported a harmful effect, whereas a set of less rigorous studies -- most funded by an industry consortium -- found a protective effect."

Simply being funded by an interested party isn't sufficient grounds to ignore the results or assume bias, however what is more disconcerting is the prepared statement issued by the industry regarding these studies.
"In addition, there is no known mechanism for microwave energy within the limits established by the [U.S.Federal Communications Commission] to cause any adverse health effects," he said. "That is why the leading global heath organizations such as the American Cancer Society, [U.S.] National Cancer Institute, World Health Organization and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration all have concurred that wireless devices are not a public health risk."

What makes people suspicious is the carefully chosen phrases such as "within the limits established" and "wireless devices".  In short, if studies have been published, why resort to an argument from authority to establish a risk assessment?  In truth, none of the mentioned organizations has provided conclusive research and results on cell phone use, so to invoke them is misleading at best. In truth, the industry knows that it cannot make the statement that "cell phones pose zero risk to users".  

The senior author of the study indicated that "clearly there is a risk", but even with that statement there is no indication of the probability of harm, nor the context in which it could occur.

This raises the other issue of trustworthiness because many of the risks being evaluated are based on statistical analysis, which can be useful in general population studies, but often doesn't convey much useful information to the individual.  As an example, consider the risk of being struck by lightning.  The National Safety Council (NSC) website gives a lifetime risk of 1 in 79,399.  However, it would hard to argue that the risk is the same for a 2 month old infant in a crib and a golfer on the course in a thunderstorm.  In addition, it appears that you have a greater likelihood of being legally executed (70,577:1), than you have being struck by lightning1.

While there is nothing wrong with these statistics as a general statement of expectations for a population, it would be erroneous to suggest that they convey any real information to an individual unless a context is clearly established.  The risk of being bitten by a venomous reptile is obviously proportional to your likelihood of exposure to such reptiles.  Therefore to discuss lifetime risks of such events is disingenuous without more clarification2.  Simlarly when statistics are used to assess other types of risks, it becomes increasingly important to understand what the conditions and exceptions are.

What it all comes down to is that the public is becoming increasingly suspicious of parsed statements, legal loopholes, and the misapplication of statistics to make decisions about what is "statistically significant" in assessing risks.  It makes little difference whether we think someone is paranoid or foolish, the only person that should be making decisions about what constitutes an acceptable risk is the individual that is exposed to it.  

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1
Often risks are minimized by suggesting that driving a car is such a high risk activity that almost everything else pales in comparison and yet we continue to do it.  However, it is interesting that according to the NSC statistics, an even higher risk comes from yourself.  You are almost twice as likely to kill yourself (117:1) than to be assaulted (210:1) or dying in a car accident(261:1).    

2 This specifically needs to be considered when examining the risks of drugs like Gardasil.  While I'm not indicating nor suggesting that there is any risk, it is incorrect to use "lifetime" statistics when the first decade of life carries zero risk, but by including it reduces the overall assessment of risk.  Especially when this is coupled with short-term studies, it is completely misleading to suggest that the risk can be projected when one hasn't even followed a patient for more than a few years. It would be like projecting the risk of getting a traffic ticket or accident, as a driver, when one is 8 years old.

Comments

The problem, of course, is that without some clarification, courts will end up clogged by lawsuits. It's a little more involved than individuals deciding for themselves what constitutes "acceptable risk".

That's one reason everyone is pussyfooting around this issue. If it doesn't look as clear as the tobacco-cancer link, it might still be as open to interpretation as the breast implant-disease link, and in either case cellular phone (and other wireless equipment) manufacturers stand to have their companies spiked seventy feet into the turf.

Gerhard Adam's picture
The problem you're describing is exacerbated by companies being less than truthful about what is actually known.  Regardless of the legal issues, it isn't up to science to assess risks based on potential economic consequences.

The problem with many of the risk issues, is that too many companies are prepared to move ahead and sell products for which adequate risk assessment hasn't been done.  It could certainly be argued that things like cell phone-brain tumor linkages are outside their area of expertise, and even that some risks might be entirely unanticipated and should not carry legal liability.

In those cases, the problem is with a legal system that wants to allow the collection of damages for an unwitting instigator.  Truthfully, I don't believe those lawsuits get anywhere.  What jeopardizes most companies is that invariably we discover that they did know or suspected the risks and tried to hide them.  That's where the liability comes from.

If there's a risk, then we deserve to know and it doesn't matter whether a company survives or not.  After all, how would it be if after research is conducted we were to discover that such a link was not only suspected, but actually established by the cell phone companies, only they decided that it was against their interests to make it public?

Steve Davis's picture
Nice work Gerhard.

Gerhard Adam's picture
Thanks Steve.  It's good to hear from you.

You raise valid points, but the problem remains that there is, apparently, some waffling going on -- on both sides of the debate. While it's true that science's purpose here is not to consider financial risk, we might be in danger of science being hijacked to that end (as with the Corning breast-implant debacle of years past).

I've run into more than a few people who are certain that wireless devices cause health problems, who quite deliberately and knowingly ignore any evidence to the contrary. While their interests are probably not financial (except for those who sell "protection" systems or "cleansing patches" to allegedly purify some alleged energy in the body), they are quite committed to seeing ills in RF.

But it's not just in laypeople. I saw an extremely shoddily designed study last year on this topic; a researcher believed he'd found evidence that cellular phone RF caused sperm to die. The conditions of his testing, however, were so egregiously unlike what is found in nature that his findings are essentially useless:

http://indigestible.nightwares.com/2008/09/19/theyre-not-even-wrong/

RF absorption rates are actually fairly well defined; they have to be. Determining safe levels has been a linchpin of ham radio licensure for decades, as an example. Cellular and other consumer-grade wireless devices don't have emissions on a level known to lead to cancer or any other illnesses (the most common of which would be RF burns, in any event). Milliwatt emissions at less than 1 GHz are negligible.

There's a lot of media-led hysteria around cellular phones, some of which is rooted in poorly-designed studies. Untrustworthiness goes both directions.

Gerhard Adam's picture
I can appreciate all the problems of ill-informed laypersons, conspiracy wing-nuts, and media hype.  However, in the end the biggest question for me, is why does science know so little about the effects things have (not just cell phones)?

Why would research suggest a "risk", if it is truly benign?  More importantly, why does any argument to refute these claims seem to be so carefully tailored?

As I said originally, I'm not really interested in people that think everything is a conspiracy, but I am concerned when a normal citizen can't get a straight answer to a simple question (and remember "we don't know" is a legitimate answer in my book).  It isn't the waffling I'm concerned with, it's the appearance of definitive answers without backing research.

Good questions. I suspect for the RF issues (risks, etc.) part of the problem is a simple lack of longitudinal study. I don't imagine it would be easy to control for variations in cellular phone frequency or power output, for instance, as both those factors change over time with new technology; nor to control for exposure to other RF sources. (Nor, for that matter, to control for cancer or illness due to other causes.)

That said there are a lot of ham operators -- who are regularly exposed to higher levels and frequencies of RF -- who've never developed cancer. ;)

As for somewhat "squishy" arguments refuting claims of risk: This strikes me as being honest. "Such and such a thing, under these conditions, doesn't appear to..." is really the language of science, a grammar of conditionals and uncertainty. Ideally, very few scientists are likely to issue unqualified statements, particularly in an area that is not, as you've pointed out, as well-studied as one would wish. Doing so often seems to backfire.

Gerhard Adam's picture
As for somewhat "squishy" arguments refuting claims of risk: This
strikes me as being honest. "Such and such a thing, under these
conditions, doesn't appear to..." is really the language of science, a
grammar of conditionals and uncertainty.

I agree completely and as long as it's science I don't have a problem.  It's when it becomes the language of lawyers that we need to be careful.

I believe that people can deal with uncertainty and undefined risks.  What makes them skeptical and cynical is when it appears that statements of risk are designed to cover-up or disguise liability.

Part of the problem, for me, is that there is still much that is unknown regarding the effects of EMF on biological systems.  While it is certain that there aren't any startling large scale effects likely, there may be some that can occur in hypersensitive individuals.

"It is clear that EMF sensitivity
is a real phenomenon in some environmentally sensitive patients, because
some had consistent reactions while none of the controls did. This study
must be considered as only preliminary, but the evidence clearly points
to sensitivity in some people."
http://www.aehf.com/articles/em_sensitive.html


"Nevertheless, it is impossible to prove that no
study will ever find a significant correlation between EMFs and cancer or
any other disease or disorder. No product can be shown to be absolutely
safe for everybody."
http://www.skepdic.com/emf.html


Specifically I'm interested in the effects of EMF fields on cellular activity since some of the early research indicated the possibility of "accelerated" activities.  While not directly harmful, it raises the question of whether such acceleration could exacerbate an existing problem in someone that might be sensitive. 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/10/001016073704.htm

All in all, there is much that is still unknown.


True, and valid points.

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