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By T. Ryan Gregory | September 24th 2009 04:20 PM | 16 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
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About T. Ryan Gregory

I am an evolutionary biologist specializing in genome size evolution at the University of Guelph in Guelph, Ontario, Canada. Be sure to visit Evolver Zone


... Full Bio

A commenter on a previous post seems to have objected to the claim that evolutionary science makes predictions.
gimme 5 examples of predictions, i mean real predictions: not fit the model hogwash

Marilyn

Here's a list that I put together in around 10 minutes.

1) That a transitional fossil linking fishes and tetrapods would be found in rocks of a specific age (from the Devonian) and formed in freshwater environments. CONFIRMED.

2) That human chromosome 2 would show clear signs of fusion of two chromosomes that are separate in other apes when examined at the level of DNA sequence. CONFIRMED.

3) That genes for producing features thought to have existed in ancestors but absent in descendants will still be found when genomes are examined in detail or even through atavism. CONFIRMED (see also the paper mentioned in the original post).

4) That proteins in the bacterial flagellum will turn out to be similar to proteins with other functions. CONFIRMED.

And a classic...

5) Darwin predicted that the evidence would show that humans evolved in Africa based on similarities to other apes. CONFIRMED.


Others have put together some decent videos about this as well.









Want to share your own favourite examples?

Comments

I got the impression that the commenter you mentioned may just be misunderstanding the term "prediction" in this context. Certainly predictions regarding sequences/proteins/functions, etc that had yet to be investigated or analyzed in organisms that have existed or already exist have been confirmed. Perhaps the commenter was relating to the fact that one can not reliably predict the path that evolution will take in the future. Many believe a common fallacy that evolution is an ordered hierarchy and/or that any changes = increased complexity or a higher "step" . Maybe this is what they were referring to.

I think the overall point could be that - to an impressive degree - genetic analyses, comparative embryology, biogeography, and many more completely separate ways of studying natural history, would all corroborate the pattern seen in the fossil record, etc., wherever one looked.

That has to be a near-infinite number of tests one could test.

Trivers and Hare's prediction of sex ratios in the social insects:

Trivers R & H Hare (1976). Haplodiploidy and the evolution of social insects. Science 191: 249-263

Could you differentiate prediction and hypothesis?

Hi Richard,

Could you differentiate prediction and hypothesis?

A prediction is usually an expected observation based on the provisional assumption that the hypothesis or theory is true.

Agree. Based on Darwin's hypothesis, then could you say the number of "transitional forms" known today match predictions?

"Agree. Based on Darwin's hypothesis, then could you say the number of "transitional forms" known today match predictions "

I was unaware of any specific predictions regarding the number of transitional fossils to expect. Are you aware of any?

Darwin said that the number of transitional forms would be "innumerable".

Hank's picture
If saying Darwin did not know everything 150 years ago is your primary defense for why you choose not to accept science, you aren't going to win a lot of people over on a science site.

Gerhard Adam's picture
I'm not sure what you're getting at here.  "Innumerable" can also simply mean "very many", so that isn't terribly surprising. 

In fact, you're cherry-picking the reference since Darwin uses the word "innumerable" times in the text to describe everything from the number of species currently in existence to examples of flowers on trees.

"In the case of a large tree covered with innumerable flowers, it may be objected that pollen could seldom be carried from tree to tree,..."

"Darwin said that the number of transitional forms would be "innumerable"

Is there a one-to-one correspondence between transitional forms and transitional fossils?

Darwin uses "innumerable" 30 times in The Origin of Species. While it is not a scientific term, Darwin uses it in the following sentence.
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"These difficulties and objections may be classed under the following heads:—First, why, if species have descended from other species by fine gradations, do we not everywhere see innumerable transitional forms? Why is not all nature in confusion, instead of the species being, as we see them, well defined?"

Darwin asks a reasonable question. Are we not asking the same question 150 years later?



 



Gerhard Adam's picture
No

Why

Gerhard Adam's picture
While Darwin didn't have the detailed information regarding genetics, so I don't know why you think it's a pertinent question to ask in a "Darwinian" sense.   We know that a significant percentage of "transitions" (if you want to call them that) maybe tiny variations that may only be detectable at the genetic level.  In many cases, changes could occur that don't express and may only express during particular stressors.  In other cases, variations may occur that are phenotypically undifferentiated, and may even be lost because no advantage is conferred.

To suggest that each variation results in a "transition" implies that there is a directionality to evolution which simply isn't there.  More to the point, you may not even recognize a transition when it occurs, because it may not be phenotypic as much as it is adaptive.  As a result, it's entirely possible for transitions to have occurred that wouldn't necessarily be reflected in the fossil record.

There have been special instances of individuals that have adapted using their feet for painting, writing, etc. when they are absent arms.  To examine such individuals from a purely skeletal examination (or imagining a fossil record) their adaptation of using feet would be undetectable.

Asking about "transitions" only concentrates on external changes, which may not necessarily be the most significant.  How would you examine the change in lung usage and metabolism for aquatic mammals being able to hold their breath for long periods?  or are you only concerned with fins?

The simultaneous convergence of evidence from the fields of paleontology, molecular biology, embryology, and genetics must exist to as evidence for evolution. No?



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