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By Patrick Lockerby | March 22nd 2009 08:21 AM | 12 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
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About Patrick Lockerby

Retired engineer, 60+ years young.
Computer builder and programmer.
Linguist specialising in language acquisition and computational linguistics.
Interested in every human endeavour except the... Full Bio

In the former USSR there was a popular joke:

When two people sit down to conspire, one of them is a KGB agent and the other is a fool.


Behind many conspiracy and denial theories is a common flaw, which I shall attempt to show using the experimental method.

An experiment to prove that humans have landed on the moon.

You will need:
A finger.
At least one eyeball, preferably your own.
At least one brain.
Optional:
An office-type swivel chair.
and / or
A railway train or a road vehicle.

Method:

Experiment 1    Hold a finger vertically in front of you.  Repeatedly close alternate eyes whilst fixating on a distant object.  You will see an apparent exchange of left-right location between your finger and distant objects.  If you only have one working eye, or if you wish to further experiment, hold the finger very steady whilst moving the head from side to side.

Experiment 2  Sit in a clear space in a swivel chair and whirl round.  You will observe that nearer object appear to move faster further ones.  If your legs are extended, you may wish to draw them in and observe a speed increase.  This speed increase is due to a demonstrable relationship between the radius of motion of a mass and its velocity.  To make a satellite orbit faster - just push it down a bit.  There you go - all you need is a swivel chair and you're well onthe way to being a rocket scientist! 
Adults: Please note that the performance of this experiment after the consumption of alcohol does not count as a valid experiment, however much fun it might be.
Kids: Please do not do this experiment whilst holding an icecream, a drink or a bowl of goldfish - however much fun it might be.

Experiment 3   Whilst travelling in a train or as passenger in a road vehicle, look out of a side window and watch the landscape.  Nearer objects appear to be rushing past your eyes faster than further objects.
(Caution!  Any attempt to perform this experiment as driver may well cause a substantial and fatal location shift.)

Explanation:

When a scene is viewed from different locations, there is an apparent shift of objects.  The apparent shift increases with distance from the stationary  observer.  It increases with nearness for a moving observer.  When the observer is moving, he or she is seeing a scene from a succession of different locations which the brain interprets as a stream of visual data.  In the static case, the shift is more clearly due to location change, but both observations are due to location change and the rules of geometry.

This apparent shift of location is called a parallax shift. It is widely used as a tool in science, and is something that every astonomer should know about.

The Great Moon Landing Hoax?

The denier argument, in brief.  America never landed men on the moon.  The US was worried about the USSR making progress in rocketry.  They were also 'engaged with' other communist countries.  They wanted to do something so spectacular that the USSR would give up on the 'space race'.  There is 'no way' that the technology of the day could put men on the moon, so the US government paid lots of people from Hollywood to help NASA set up a giant hoax.  This hoax fooled everyone.

The Core of the Denier Argument:

People in the US and other countries conspired together to fool the USSR and China.  The big question is, how many other countries?  Given the fact of parallax shift, the answer can only be:  all of them.  Did you get that?  Every country in the world was a part of the conspiracy.  Huh?

Moon-Talk

When those first men went to the moon, just about everybody with a television set was enthralled to see and hear the live action - myself included.  Oh yeah, say the deniers, it was just a Hollywood movie being bounced from somewhere in america.  Mention parallax and they switch to:  well, like I mean, man, yeah, bounced from the moon.  Huh?

In order to convince the entire world, here's what would be needed:

A film is made for every single part of the voyage to the moon.  It is placed in a capsule and transported to the moon.  During the journey, parts of the movie are played at exactly the right time.  Various experiments, accessible from anywhere on Earth are placed on the moon.  This has to be done with great precision, so we need a highly intelligent robot.

A robot on the moon can never be directed from Earth in real time.  Due to the distance, and the limitations of the speed of light, by the time your signal arrives telling the robot to stop, it has already been 'Humpty-Dumptied' down the cliff by gravity.  The experiments must have been placed by an intelligent agent q.e.d.

More on Parallax and Real Science

Вы говорите что я тупоумн?  That's babelfish's Russian version of  'Are you saying I'm stupid?'  You see, for the USSR to fall for something so obviously bogus requires that every soviet radio engineer and cosmologist of that era must be as unintelligent as a Doctor of Dimology with a dodgy degree.

Newton's laws of motion show that for a given mass and velocity,  a spacecraft travelling between the Earth and the moon must follow a specific path.  If a rocket engine is fired, if a maneuvering engine is fired, if a stage is separated - any of these will alter the path.

Now, in order to fool somebody who knows about parallax, which is anyone with at least one working eye, the hoax requires that the Hollywood movie must be transported in a spacecraft with the exact mass, fuel and engines as the one claimed by the hoax.  That includes all of the modules, including both modules of the lander.  If you don't do that, any observer can detect a parallax discrepancy and expose the hoax.

So, in order to fool the public, and most especially the former USSR, the US made a movie and put it in a space craft identical in mass, fuel, thrust and modularity to the one claimed.  If they didn't do that, if they didn't 'really' send a module to land on the moon and return rocks to Earth - using intelligent robots again - then the USSR and China would have been all over them like a pack of hungry astronomers.

Conclusions:

Given the facts of parallax and its implications, given the fact that we have not even today the ability to build such an intelligent robot as would be required, it follows that, since the experiments are in fact on the moon, and moon rocks have been distributed to academics on a planet-wide basis -

it follows that the denier argument is as follows -

The moon landings were a hoax to fool the USSR and China, and the USSR and China were in on the whole gag.

And that argument, my friends, is worthy of the Buzz Aldrin periorbital haematoma award, 2002.


In general, if you analyse a denier argument based on a hoax theory, you will find that, as here

in order for the hoax to be effective, the target audience of the hoax must be a fellow-conspirator.

Q.E.D.

Comments

Steve Davis's picture
That's all very well for hoaxes Patrick, but I still love a good conspiracy!

logicman's picture
That's all very well for hoaxes Patrick, but I still love a good conspiracy!

We must get together some time and discuss this.  Er - you're not KGB, I take it?  :)

Steve Davis's picture
I won't be KGB if you won't be CIA.
There seems to be a school of thought that large scale conspiracies are a nonsense. This makes sense in that the more people that are involved, the harder it would be to maintain secrecy, but this does not rule out large conspiracies altogether. There was the famous case back in the 50s or 60s from memory, in which a major car maker, an oil company, and a tyre maker, were found guilty in a US court of conspiring to undermine the development of public transport.

logicman's picture
There have been many conspiracies, indeed.  There are many famous legal cases where people have 'hushed up' important information.  The problem is the mixing up in the public eye of fact and fantasy.

Fact:  the injurious effects of tetra-ethyl lead were widely known before it went into wide-scale production.

Fact:  the injurious effects of white phosphorus were widely know long before the match industry developed.

Yes, there was a hush-up.

Fiction:  it has been hushed up by big industry, but someone somewhere somewhen has invented the:
everlasting match
perpetual motion machine
car that runs on water
anti-gravity levitator
etc. etc. ad nauseum, ad hoc, ad water and boil for ten minutes.

The moon-landing, 9/11, MV Estonia, climate change conspiracy theories - these all fall into a special category:
'conspiracy to falsely persuade the general public that there has been a conspiracy'.
The people who promote these wacky ideas seem to me to resemble the sort of person who falsely confesses to a horrific and widely publicised crime. (  Confession may be good for the soul, but it should play no part whatsoever in the due process of law.) These conspiracy theories can usually be dismissed with some very basic scientific proofs. The theories only linger if the proofs are so high up the ladder of knowledge that only the highly educated can understand them intuitively.

Nice article.

I'd be interested in hearing more about conspiracy theories. They're so fascinating, as they're often delivered w/such passion & furor that it makes me jealous. Furthermore, some of their proponents - a few I happened to meet - are extremely intelligent, but you can tell that the intelligence is just somehow misdirected at a fundamental level. I think that they're often given short-shrift b/c they're not correct - & on a level incorrectness is a good reason to throw off a theory - but nonetheless, at the core of their message, there's something very real about its passion, logic, & drive that's revealing about human nature. They might be wrong, but they're not talking jibberish.

I'd be interested if anyone knows about any books/resources that approach the world of conspiracy theories from this perspective (eg, with a goal of learning about/chronicling human behavior/history, rather than just as an attempt to support/refute them)

logicman's picture
I'd be interested in hearing more about conspiracy theories. They're so fascinating, as they're often delivered w/such passion&furor that it makes me jealous. Furthermore, some of their proponents - a few I happened to meet - are extremely intelligent, but you can tell that the intelligence is just somehow misdirected at a fundamental level. I think that they're often given short-shrift b/c they're not correct -&on a level incorrectness is a good reason to throw off a theory - but nonetheless, at the core of their message, there's something very real about its passion, logic,&drive that's revealing about human nature. They might be wrong, but they're not talking jibberish.

I'd be interested if anyone knows about any books/resources that approach the world of conspiracy theories from this perspective (eg, with a goal of learning about/chronicling human behavior/history, rather than just as an attempt to support/refute them)

Kerrjak:
 I liked what you said so much that I've quoted the whole thing.  Sometimes, saying a thing twice can be twice as effective.  In fact, there is a rule of discourse that suggests that three times is optimal but hey! Let's not get carried away.  :)

Yes, more research is needed.  Dr. Carl Wieman would know more than a thing or two about this.  There is something about our pet theories that makes us behave like a dog with a bone.  It is so hard to let go.  Fortunately, we are not dogs, and so we have pockets.  It is a fine experiment to keep the bone in the pocket - just in case - and then to go right ahead and speculate what the cosmos might be like if our bone didn't exist.  We don't always end up throwing that smelly old bone away, but when we do, we lighten our intellectual load enormously.

And that is the really important part: the load. 
We humans didn't get where we are today by not being lazy.  :)

Glad you enjoyed the comment.

The more I think about it, the more difficult it is to distinguish conspiracy theorists from regular theorists. It's kind of eerie.

logicman's picture
The more I think about it, the more difficult it is to distinguish
conspiracy theorists from regular theorists. It's kind of eerie.

The ones who publish and then get on with the next puzzle are the ones I'd go for.
There's defending a theory academically, and then there's defending a theory by getting the media onside so that for every reasoned scientific comment there are at least two opposing comments.

But maybe that, in its turn, is my own bias coming to the fore as a conspiracy theory.

Eerie?   Weird is as weird dost doeth.  :)

Gerhard Adam's picture
Part of the problem with conspiracy theories is that they can often be fed with disinformation to make them appear ridiculous and those engaged in them tend to set them up with too much intent.

For example, in some of the discussions regarding 9/11 as a conspiracy of the federal government, one of the big problems is the level of cooperation that is required between many individuals and agencies to pull it off.  This, in turn, leads to the need for these groups to actively participate in producing the results.  As we move down this path, it becomes increasingly tenuous to maintain the plausibility of the argument and the conspiracy is ultimately reduced to an absurdity.

However, what if, instead of conspiring to facilitate the 9/11 attack, there was information available that simply wasn't acted on.  In other words, to simply let events unfold as they would.  You could still have a conspiracy but in this latter instance, it would require almost no knowledge nor cooperation from the groups involved.  It would be sufficient for information to simply be ignored to fulfill the conspiracy.

I'm not suggesting that any such thing took place, but often in conspiracy theories it is difficult to differentiate between intentional neglect of data and simple incompetence.  In addition, I'm not sure that one could tell the difference afterwards.

This is the primary difficulty I have with the 9/11 conspiracy theories and the government action that did occur.  In effect, the government put forth the argument that every agency (foreign and domestic) was so incompetent that they didn't track the individuals that they were supposed to track, and that they were all oblivious to the possibilities of an attack.  It's almost simpler to believe that a conspiracy was being planned than to accept that level of incompetence.  (In addition, we know of people lower in the hierarchy that did raise concerns but were put off, so this also opens the door to a conspiracy interpretation).

To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked in the least to discover that many conspiracy theories weren't being floated by the government in the first place to draw attention away from real activities.  After all, if you can plant an idea which is ultimately ridiculed or viewed as absurd, it is the perfect camoflage for any real activities that may be taking place, since people are reluctant to investigate something that has already been dismissed.

logicman's picture
if you can plant an idea which is ultimately ridiculed or viewed as absurd, it is the perfect camoflage for any real activities that may be taking place, since people are reluctant to investigate something that has already been dismissed.

That is a lot like the 'bad news day' hypothesis - the best day for a government to release bad news is on a day when the media is distracted by much worse news.
Ms Moore had faced widespread calls for her to quit since sending an e-mail as New York's twin towers burned, suggesting that 11 September was a good day to "bury" bad news.

Source: BBC News.

I'll keep this brief, Gerhard, as I am deep in the writing of my Theory of Time Part 4.

Re: 9/11 - the conspiracy theorists seem to be in overall agreement that the whole event, whether caused by government or allowed by government, was designed to blame Osama Bin Laden and Al Quaeda.

Reductio ad absurdum: since Osama Bin Laden was swift to take the 'credit' for 9/11, then he must have been part of the conspiracy which was set up to blame him.  q.e.d.


I think you might've hit the nail on the head in the scenario that the info was present but not acted upon. Like a lie of omission rather than by commission.

Gov't can be terribly inefficient. I once took classes in a small department with 5-some secretaries - or maybe more, no one was really sure. It was clear that they would've been much more efficient with just 1 or 2 secretaries, but the fact that there were so many diffused the responsibility to the point where nothing got done in a timely manner. My theory is that originally they had 2 or 3 secretaries - which was too many - & since all the work was diffused & little got done, they felt like they had to hire more. & more. Until it became a terrible cycle whereby the more secretaries they had, the less got done, & the more they felt they needed. That might serve as a microcosm of gov't expansion. It's easy to see how much can slip thru the cracks.

On a separate note I've met a good few people with personality disorders in my life. Some are self-serving, others are more flaky or delusional. But across the broad categories - from delusional to narcissistic & antisocial, borderline - is the construction of an entire artificial world around them whereby everything is interpreted as evidence supporting their messed up reality. It's rather similar I guess w/conspiracy theories.

logicman's picture
Kerrjak: thanks for your comment.

I have observed that human communication channels are a prime example of delay, filtering and noise that are found in all communications channels.  No channel can be immune, physics 101, but in the age of the internet, why does it take years to act on something that needs immediate action?

Talking to Houston from the moon - delay 2.5s
Writing to one's MP, Congressperson etc, average delay 2 weeks.

Getting to talk to any 'important' person, including your own doctor -
"have you got an appointment?" - er no, I didn't actually plan to fall ill.
Delay variable, from 10 minutes to  whatever.

Our socio-political systems are modelled by theorists as if by communication they could control society.
Control and communication in human systems is subject to:
massive inertia - delay if you like,
filtering - thinks: "my boss is too busy to deal with this  triviality."
noise: 'the climate is changing' + 'OH NO IT ISNT'

"Control and communication in human systems" is the title of a book I started in the 1970s.
I may yet finish it.  :)

What a rant that was - I feel better now - sorry Kerrjak

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