People come to this web site for well written, interesting columns on science. To some degree it must be questioned as to whether economics is a science. That being said, the current financial crisis is worthy of some commentary here as it will affect all of us to some degree. As a futurist, I see this crisis as part of a bigger transition from one Age to another. The Information Age began in the 1970s and is now giving way to the Shift Age.

All year, in speeches given around the country, I have stated that the economic downturn we are going through must be looked at from a new perspective. The ‘is it a recession or not’ and ‘is it a bear stock market or not’ is a far too narrow focus for insightful discussion. There is something much larger that we are beginning to move through.

One of Salvador Dali’s greatest paintings is called “The Persistence of Memory”.  Last week the results of a new study were published in Science magazine that conclusively prove the physical nature of that persistence.  In what other scientists have called a ‘foundational study’ a team of researchers from America and Israel have discovered and documented the physical nature of memory.

In the study, the researchers threaded tiny electrodes into the brains of 13 people with severe epilepsy.  Evidently this implanting of electrodes is standard procedure as it allows doctors to pinpoint the brain activity that cause epileptic seizures.

It was two years ago that I first wrote about ocean dead zones. These are areas of the ocean that, due to a lack of oxygen, no longer sustain any life. While dead zones can happen naturally, they usually are caused by the results of human activity. A primary cause is nitrogen-rich nutrients from agricultural fertilizers that flow into coastal waters from rivers and streams.

Last week there was a report published in the Journal of Science that stated that the number of these ocean dead zones around the world has doubled every decade since the 1960s. There are now some 400 coastal areas that periodically or perpetually become dead due to oxygen starved bottom waters.

There have been many cultural changes so far in 2008. Some of these changes are in response to the rapid increase in the price of oil and other commodities. Some of these changes have been due to technological innovations. In both cases new behavior patterns are being established that will, to some degree become permanent and will create new dynamics in certain industries. Today we take a look at some of the predictions made here last January.

Shopping

The predicted shopping trends were written with a long term view. What is interesting is that the high price of gasoline has accelerated the speed of implementation of some of the forecasts. On shopping, this column forecast:

“Shopping behavior will noticeably change……purchases will go down per capita. This will due to belt tightening but also due to the effect of the explosive growth that on-line sales will now have on off-line sales.”

The economy has clearly become the primary subject today in America. It has become so not only because of all the issues discussed in the prior column, but also because it has also become the number one issue for voters in this significant election year.

Regular readers know that I have long predicted the current price of oil and that we are now moving through Peak Oil These subjects were included in my “Forecast for 2008”

To quote from that January 9, 2008 column:

“In 2008, gas will, for a period of time reach $4 on the national level. A year ago I predicted that oil would rise above $80. Three months ago I predicted that the price would rise to $100 and that the trading range for oil will be $80 – 125 a barrel for the next year…but there could be several situations that could drive the price above $125.”

As a futurist, I think, speak, and write about the future. A large part of what I do is to make forecasts on the future and what might happen. This forecasting is based upon analysis of trends and the underlying forces and flows that create and shape these trends. The more specific the forecast or the further out the forecast, the higher probability of error in the forecast. When I look 5, 10 or 20 years out I look at the macro forces at play in the world to predict the overarching changes and reorganizations that will occur. Here in this column the future focus is 3 months to 3 years and is much more specific and news related.

Courtesy of the Phoenix landing craft on Mars we just discovered that there is ice on Mars. Now that is cool, very cool! In the last century there has been a constant fascination and debate about whether there might be, or might have been, life on Mars. Well, we still have yet to answer that question with any certainty, but at least we know that there is water in some form on the planet. Where there is water, there is a good chance there might be life.

The question is there life elsewhere in the Universe, is a fundamental human question that will ultimately be answered. I am of the school that given the infinite vastness of space, it is a statistical certainty of some other form of highly evolved life (if we can be so charitable as to place our species in that category).

Energy costs are at an all time high.  They will continue to go up.  The price of petroleum may indeed fluctuate, but within ever higher ranges.  $125 a barrel oil will climb to $135-150.  This is creating a convergence for businesses in that the traditional business owner or CEO has long believed that ‘going green’ was an endeavor contrary to the standard operation of business.

I speak to 2-4 groups of CEOs every month.  As a futurist, I am increasingly being asked by these groups about what the future of energy looks like as most businesses are getting whacked by the dramatic rise in energy prices.  When they hear that high energy prices are the new normal, they groan.  I immediately launch into strategies that they can immediately implement that will not only lower costs, but will also mobilize employees and allow them to promote to customers and suppliers that they are being green.  A number of CEOs have started to act on these recommendations.

The first thing to do is to conduct an energy audit, usually provided by the local energy company, and if not them, then an energy audit firm.  Establish the baseline of energy consumption on an annual basis for every facility.  The next step is to mobilize the employees to help lower energy use.  For example, if a company spent $100,000 last year on electricity, set the goal of $85,000 for this year.  Present this to the employees that the company wants to do its’ part in the effort to slow global warming by lowering energy consumption.  State that the company will split savings 50/50 with the employees.  So, if electric costs are lowered by $15,000 then $7,500 will go to the employees as a year end ‘conservation bonus’. The company will save the same amount. It will amazing how much more lights will  get turned off when people leave rooms.  I promise the CEOs that they all have someone at the company that will immediately get involved and work to mobilize the other employees.  Heads nod knowingly.

There was a recent study that provided a revised view of the Internet Structure in the U.S. The Global information Technology Report was released a few weeks ago. The study was done by Insead, the French business school, on behalf of the World Economic Forum.

The conclusion was that the Internet infrastructure of the United States is one of the world’s best. This, of course, is a different conclusion than recent opinion that suggested the U.S. is lagging far behind the rest of the world. The report used an index generated from 68 variables including market factors, technological infrastructure and political and regulatory environments, rather than just bandwidth capacity and data transmission speeds. The U.S. is now ranked fourth in the world behind Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland.

As a futurist I speak and write about trends and the future. I am often asked questions about the future of one thing or another. In most cases I speak to general trends, not specific outcomes. In some areas I can be somewhat specific as I have taken the time to analyze and then cross reference what I have learned with the trends and forces I see. One of those areas is the price of oil.

In early 2007, when the price of oil was $53 a barrel I was invited on a business program to predict what I thought the price of oil might be by the end of the year. At that time I said that I thought that oil would exceed $80 a barrel and could well approach $100, though I didn’t think it would cross that barrier in 2007. The reporter, who had never spoken with a futurist, calling me a ‘so-called futurist’ was trying to contain her sputtering disbelief. The opposite side was some ‘oil industry analyst’ who spoke about a price fluctuation between $50-70 for the remainder of the year.

About eight months ago, I wrote that I thought that the near term trading range for the price of oil for the next couple of years would be $80-125. At the time I stated that while there was little on the horizon to create a downward pressure below $80, there was much on the horizon that could cause an upward pressure to $125 and that the long term trend would be ever upward and that downward pressure would provide only temporary dips.

There are many on-going themes in the large discussion of global warming and replacing fossil fuels with renewable, clean energy. One of the dominant ones is that alternative fuels such as solar are much more expensive than fossil fuels. This argument is often put forth by those entrenched in the status quo of the fossil fuel industry. The general argument is that our entire economic world will take a hit if we use solar as it is so much more expensive that oil.

There was a recent news story here at ScientificBlogging saying that it will take another ten years for solar energy to be price-competitive with fossil fuels. That may or may not turn out to be true. What is clear is that we must support innovation on all fronts to shorten that time line. At the same time we must support all efforts to make the solar industry scalable.

Solar power today is in many ways like petroleum of the 19th century. How so? When petroleum was first extracted from the ground in 1861, it was much more expensive than the energy sources that were dominant, wood and coal. It was only when the market was scaled up that petroleum became price competitive. Sound familiar? That is exactly the situation today with solar and other alternative sources of energy.

In the last 20 years, physicists have, after drilling down into ever smaller particles of matter come to this conclusion, that everything is energy This, to some degree confirms some of the underpinnings of eastern philosophies and religions.

If everything is energy then the century long human behavior of equating energy to fossil fuels is put into proper perspective: an incredibly narrow viewpoint. We are now entering a new age called the Shift Age One of the characteristics of the Shift Age is that it will become known as the time when all kinds of alternative and renewable sources of energy will be utilized and will gradually and then rapidly replace the consumption of fossil fuels.

Brasilia is the futuristic capitol of Brazil. It has been so since 1960 when the federal government moved there from Rio de Janeiro. I recently spent two days there and it is truly magnificent. It has been a place I have wanted to visit almost my entire life, but more on that later.

First it is important to briefly tell the story of its creation as it is all about vision and how vision can project humanity into the future. The population of Brazil, since colonization by the Portuguese, has always been predominately oriented to the Atlantic coast, where the majority of Brazilians still reside. The country is the fifth largest in the world in terms of land mass.

It is generally accepted that America could immediately reduce energy consumption by at least 20% if intelligent conservation efforts were implemented at all levels.

As a country, we established energy use habits decades ago when all forms of energy were relatively cheap.

Lights on in high rise building at night, corridors in hotels and office buildings that are almost painfully bright, lights on in empty rooms and offices, and escalators that move even when no one is on them. This all came back to me on a recent trip to Brazil.

I have written several columns about cell phones in the past.  Each one was due to milestones of growth.  The speed of growth in the use of cell phones continues to be astounding.  It was announced last week by the International Telecommunication Union that the number of total global cell phone subscribers will exceed the number of non-subscribers for the first time in 2008. 

When you stop and think about this, it is nothing less than amazing.  This means that more than half of all human beings alive today have cell phones.  That includes all children, all the elderly, all the people living in poverty around the world, all the people living in underdeveloped countries and all those living in remote areas of the world where there is no cell phone use.  Of course there are a number of people in the U.S. and elsewhere that have more than one cell phone, but that is a very small percentage of total users.

In the last post I suggested that the U.S. learn from Europe in the use of high speed trains as a core component of a national transportation system.  Trains are more energy efficient than cars, give off far less greenhouse emissions than airplanes, rarely get cancelled or delayed due to ‘weather’ or ‘flow control’ and depart and arrive near the central city.  Given that America is much larger than any country currently utilizing high speed trains, it can only be a part of the transportation mix.  What might the composite national transportation profile look like in 2015?

High speed trains could operate in the highly populated corridors mentioned in the last post.  These are mostly on a north-south axis.  Utilization of these trains would alleviate congestion in the air and at airports.  Airlines, using ever more fuel efficient planes, could be the primary transcontinental and east-west transport.  Airports in cities served by high speed trains could have direct local trains connect to the central train station.

High speed trains must, and will become an essential component of the U.S. transportation system during the next 20 years. This seems to be obvious, but is something that the (lack of) leadership in Washington D.C. has yet to seriously consider.  A combination of lack of vision, deeply entrenched vested interests, a troubled Amtrak system and a ‘not invented here’ mindset has combined to allow the U.S. to be woefully behind the curve when it comes to both rail transport and an intelligent, integrated national transportation system.

Flying has become an extremely unpleasant and unreliable travel experience. In addition it is a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.  Predicated on cheap oil, high prices and customer service, the airline business must now operate in an environment of expensive oil, low prices and a general lack of quality customer service not to mention cancellations and poor on-time performance. At the other end of the transportation spectrum, automobile travel is undergoing change due to increasing price of gasoline.  Gasoline prices consistently over $3 means that in addition to looking for a high MPG when buying a new car, people will think twice before making a long road trip and will increasingly find that commuting by car is adversely affecting the household budget.

The price of oil topped $100 on January 2 and again on January 3. During the days since I have received emails and phone calls from regular readers, complimenting me on my correct prediction. As I wrote here more than two months ago, the price of oil would not only cross the $100 price barrier, but would trade in the $80-125 range for the next year

A year ago, on the syndicated program “First Business”, when oil was trading in the $50-55 range, I predicted that oil would go over $80 during 2007, which, at the time was a contrary view, as oil had been down trending for several weeks at that point.

As a futurist, it is my job to look into the future and try to discern what might happen in the months, years and decades ahead. I look at patterns and large dynamics that translate into macro trends that then translate into specific developments.

It is an odd sensation, but whenever any of what I have predicted becomes reality, it feels as though I have already experienced it. When oil crossed the $100 price barrier these past few days, it was as though I had already experienced that. My reaction?  Of course it went over $100 a barrel, what’s the big deal?

Happy New Year to all of you that are regular readers of this blog and to those of you who might be coming to it the first time.  May 2008 be a happy year for everyone.  I can promise that it will be another year of upheaval and change, probably exceeding 2007 in that regard.  I will submit to you my annual predictions, both general and specific, for the year within the next two weeks.  Right now I would like to take a quick look at several late in the year developments of 2007 that provide indication as to where we are going and what will lay ahead for us in 2008.

As I have stated here several times, a fundamental aspect of being a futurist is to look for patterns to discern the dynamics that will shape our collective future.  Events, inventions, social, cultural and economic developments, trailblazing efforts by individuals and small groups, when looked at collectively can reveal underlying patterns and trends, both macro and micro.  Here are some notable developments that point into our future, some of which will be looked at in greater detail in future columns.

Writers’ Strike